UDF comeback to reshape political balance in Malabar

The performance of the three major fronts in the three-tier local body polls last week reveals that the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) has scripted a surprising comeback that could potentially reshape the political balance in Malabar.

However, the results across the six districts have not eroded the base of the ruling Communist Party of India (Marxist) [CPI-M]-led Left Democratic Front (LDF), which is politically strong in Kasaragod, Kannur, Kozhikode, and Palakkad districts.

This was evident in the number of seats won by the Left parties in the district panchayats, undoubtedly attributed to political mandate, which were nine out of 18 in Kasaragod, 18 out of 25 in Kannur, 13 out of 28 in Kozhikode and 19 out of 31 in Palakkad.

The same voting pattern could be seen in block panchayats – Kasaragod four out of six, Kannur – eight out of 11, Kozhikode eight out of 12 and nine out of 13 in Palakkad.

Such an uptrend was not seen in Wayanad where the UDF converted what had been a closely balanced contest last time into a decisive lead in the district panchayat and clock panchayats.

Resurgence

Nevertheless, like in most parts of the State, the UDF drastically overturned the ruling LDF’s hegemony established in the previous local body polls in 2020. The resurgence of the front has been particularly witnessed in Kozhikode, Wayanad and Kasaragod districts.

Malappuram remained the Congress–Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) bulwark like in the previous elections, with the front tightening its grip on grama and block panchayats as well as municipalities in the district. The LDF drew a blank in the district panchayat.

With the LDF receding from its 2020 levels, trends pointed to a clear UDF advantage across both rural and urban segments in Kasaragod. Likewise, Kannur, long regarded as the citadel of the Left, witnessed UDF breakthroughs across multiple local bodies.

These advances have sharply reduced the LDF’s traditional advantages, signalling a weakening of its once-formidable cadre base.

Causes for LDF setback

Anti-incumbency sentiments, allegations of Sabarimala gold theft, disenchantment and consolidation among Muslim community have been attributed to voters favouring the UDF.

Regarding the two Corporations in the region, the UDF retained the Kannur civic body, while the LDF failed to get a majority on its own in the Kozhikode council. Besides, the UDF also registered major electoral gains, particularly in the Corporation and municipalities, eroding the Left’s earlier edge.

Incidentally, the BJP-led NDA’s visible strength remains largely confined to urban pockets and some rural areas in Kasaragod and Palakkad districts. Overall, the party’s performance continued to garner only a token share of support across north Kerala.

However, its vote share has markedly improved, especially in Kozhikode Corporation, but it failed to achieve an outright majority in Palakkad municipality. The party won the lone district panchayat seat in Kasaragod.

With the political equilibrium realigned in the local body polls, the stage has been set for a high-voltage contest in the Assembly polls in April next year.