A staff member stands on a ladder on the day of Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump’s visit in Potterville, Michigan, U.S., August 29, 2024.
Brian Snyder | Reuters
In August, after the release of the July jobs report — which drastically revised down previous months’ numbers — U.S. President Donald Trump accused then Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erika McEntarfer of manipulating data, and fired her.
Yesterday, the BLS announced that the U.S. economy had added 911,000 fewer jobs than previously reported, for the year preceding March 2025. “Downward revisions since the cutoff date in that report suggest that the reduction in payroll growth has been actually around 1.2 million for the past 16 months,” wrote CNBC’s Jeff Cox.
That’s a big and scary number. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase — America’s biggest bank — in a reaction to the most recent report, said “the economy is weakening. Whether it’s on the way to recession or just weakening, I don’t know.”
Traders in the futures market now see an increased chance of cuts — which could support jobs creation — at each of the Fed’s next three meetings this year, according to the CME FedWatch tool. That’s assuming no more Fed officials are fired, which could change the trajectory of monetary policy for the next few years. Only they, and not the BLS commissioner, have the power to directly sway the U.S. labor market on such a macroscopic level.
What you need to know today
And finally…
Chinese and U.S. flags flutter near The Bund, before U.S. trade delegation meet their Chinese counterparts for talks in Shanghai, China July 30, 2019.
Aly Song | Reuters
Record share of U.S. businesses divert China investments. Top choice: Southeast Asia
Nearly half of U.S. businesses have redirected planned China investments to other regions over the past year — the highest on record — the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai said Wednesday.
As many as 47% of the respondents in the survey, conducted from May 19 to June 20, said that they had diverted investments planned for China primarily to Southeast Asia. The Indian subcontinent, which includes Bangladesh, was the second-most popular destination for redirected investments, while the U.S. and Mexico were tied at the third spot.
— Evelyn Cheng
