With Kerala entering a politically charged week for the three-tier local body elections, on December 9 and 11, with counting scheduled for December 13, one question that is topmost on people’s minds is whether the polls are a referendum on the State government.
For the major political fronts — the Communist Party of India (Marxist) [CPI(M)]-led Left Democratic Front (LDF), the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) — the elections are more than a test of organisational strength at the grama, block, and district panchayat levels. They are being templated as a semi-final that will set the tone for the State’s broader political alignment ahead of the Assembly elections, possibly in April 2026.
Although the government has justifiably highlighted its achievements over the last 10 years in power, it maintains that a local body election, by its very nature, cannot be considered a definitive verdict on the performance of the ruling coalition.
An analysis of the previous three-tier local body elections reveals that regional issues and candidates outweigh State-level political dynamics, particularly at the lower tiers, namely, the grama panchayats and, to a lesser extent, the block panchayats. State politics, however, is unequivocally reflected in the results for the district panchayat divisions, and a similar trend could be seen in Corporations and municipalities.
The electorate at grama panchayats votes for three candidates: one each for the grama panchayat, block panchayat, and the district panchayat. This is unlike voters in Corporations and municipalities who can exercise their franchise for a single vote.
In the 2020 polls, the LDF secured 11 district panchayats, while the UDF won two — Malappuram and Ernakulam. In Wayanad, members was divided equally between the LDF and the UDF. The LDF won five Corporations to the UDF’s single victory in Kannur. In the case of municipalities, the UDF led with 45 to the LDF’s 35.
The electoral pattern was almost similar in 2015, with the exception of the number of municipalities won, when the LDF had prevailed in the three-tier local body elections, while the UDF was governing the State. On the other hand, in the 2010 three-tier polls during the LDF regime, the UDF established leads in eight districts, secured 31 municipalities, and won two Corporations. Besides, the UDF won 90 block panchayats and a majority of grama panchayats Statewide, surpassing the LDF.
G. Gopa Kumar, political scientist and former Vice-Chancellor of the Central University of Kerala, says that the local body elections are primarily driven by the appeal of candidates and regional development. The performance of the State government accounts for no more than 40% of the result. The voting pattern at the local level is too fragmented for definitive analysis, he adds. “While there is a profound divergence in voting patterns between the Lok Sabha and Assembly elections, a ‘parental’ relationship exists between local body and Assembly polls,” he observes.
Dr. Gopakumar says that the results of the three-tier local body polls will be an indicator for the upcoming Assembly elections. “The precise extent to which anti-incumbency will affect the Left government cannot be determined, and the strategy employed by the Congress is equally important,” Dr. Gopakumar says, adding that the rise of the BJP is another significant variable in the State’s bipolar political landscape.
Hameed Chennamangaloor, social critic and political analyst, posits that the three-tier local body polls will offer a minor referendum on the performance of the State government. “However issues such as the allegations of gold theft at Sabarimala, sexual assault cases against expelled Congress legislator Rahul Mamkootathil, and the perception of antagonism felt by the Muslim community toward the Left government for supporting SNDP Yogam leader Vellappally Natesan’s statements against Muslims will have some impact. The degree to which these factors will influence voting will become clear following the results,” says Mr. Chennamangaloor.
Many Muslim organisations, he says, are carrying out a propaganda that the CPI(M) and the BJP have a tacit understanding. They also cite the statement by Union Minister for Education Dharmendra Pradhan in the Rajya Sabha that CPI(M) member John Brittas acted as an intermediary between the State government and the Centre to facilitate the signing of an MoU for the PM SHRI (Pradhan Mantri Schools for Rising India) scheme.
However, Mr. Chennamangaloor believes that the religious perspective of the Muslim community will not affect either the Christian community or the various caste groups within the Hindu community.
Published – December 06, 2025 11:02 pm IST
