​Clarity and confusion: On the Bihar election preparations, the rival fronts

The principal rival fronts in Bihar have finally announced incumbent Nitish Kumar and Tejashwi Yadav as their respective chief ministerial candidates after weeks of speculation and haggling. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), around the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)–Janata Dal (United) axis, and the Mahagatbandhan, or Grand Alliance, around the Indian National Congress–Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) axis, are caught in their internal games of one-upmanship. The delay in the announcements by both fronts suggests that their chief ministerial candidates are more a result of compulsions than any convergence of minds. The BJP had clearly indicated in recent weeks that the choice of Chief Minister would remain open before it made a turnaround to endorse Mr. Kumar for yet another term. The BJP is a bigger party in the outgoing Assembly, though Mr. Kumar is the Chief Minister. The saffron party sees an opportunity now to claim the top post, given the evident slowing down of Mr. Kumar, who is 74. The Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), another NDA constituent, is also hostile to Mr. Kumar. As it turned out, the BJP concluded that growing public perception that Mr. Kumar may get replaced, was damaging the NDA’s prospects. Though he is aging and faltering, Mr. Kumar continues to command enough of a following in Bihar for the BJP to fall in line behind him, at least until the election is over.

Something comparable has happened between the Congress and the RJD. The Congress was reluctant to endorse Mr. Yadav initially, but then gauged that any further confusion on the leadership question could undermine the alliance, which has other challenges too. While Mr. Yadav has the support of a notable and articulate segment of the population, he is also resented with equal ferocity by the sections of the rest. By declaring Mr. Yadav as the chief ministerial candidate, the Grand Alliance is trying to first consolidate its Yadav base before seeking to expand it. The chief ministerial faces of the NDA and the Grand Alliance pull a lot of weight but also face a crisis of legitimacy and public scepticism for various reasons. Neither front is in a position to push for new possibilities in leadership and vision, and in such a situation, Bihar’s voters might consider other options if available. Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party is trying to place itself as a platform for those who are tired of Mr. Kumar and Mr. Yadav. It is still a long shot for Mr. Kishor, but the confusion and delay before the tentative clarity suggest that all is not well in the other two alliances.