The Data Point published on Wednesday discussed in detail the spoiler effect created by Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) in the 2020 Bihar Assembly election and examined the possibility of it influencing the upcoming 2025 polls as well. This effect was one of the key reasons the 2020 election turned out to be a closely fought contest between the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the RJD-led mahagatbandhan (grand alliance).
Today, we will examine another major reason behind the close contest in 2020—the Congress party’s poor performance—and assess whether this imbalance within the alliance could influence the outcome of the 2025 polls.
In 2020, Congress recorded a contested vote share of 32.9%, the lowest among major mahagatbandhan alliance partners, as shown in Table below.
In comparison, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) secured 39%, CPI 33.3%, CPI(M) 37.6%, and CPI(ML)(L) 41.4%. Contested vote share refers to the percentage of votes a party receives in the seats it fought. In the 2015 election, Congress recorded a contested vote share of 39.5%.
Table 2 shows the strike rate of parties, calculated by dividing the number of seats won by the total seats contested. In 2020, Congress had a strike rate of 27.1%, once again the lowest among the mahagatbandhan alliance partners.
In comparison, the RJD recorded 52.1%, CPI 33.3%, CPI(M) 50%, and CPI(ML)(L) 63.1%. In fact, Congress’s strike rate that year was lower than that of the major constituents of the NDA as well.
In the 2015 election, Congress’s strike rate was much higher at 65.9%. While the strike rates of the RJD and JD(U) also declined between 2015 and 2020, the steepest drop was seen in Congress’s performance.
The below table presents the share of seats won by parties with a victory margin of less than 5% of votes. For instance, in 2020, Congress won 52.6% of its seats with a margin below 5%, the highest such proportion among the mahagatbandhan alliance partners. While the first two tables indicate that Congress is losing more seats and securing significantly lower vote shares than its partners, the below table shows that even in the seats it won in 2020, more than half were close contests.
Taken together, these three data points show that Congress remains the weaker link in the alliance, which partly explains why it is fielding fewer candidates in 2025 compared to 2020. However, since the majority of the seats Congress is contesting in 2025 are the same as those it contested and lost in 2020, reversing its fortunes will be a challenging task.
Further, in 2020, Congress had a poor strike rate of only 18.9% in direct contests against the BJP, and in 2025, the two parties are set to face each other in 31 seats. Against the JD(U), Congress had a better strike rate of 35.7% in 2020, and in 2025 they will compete against each other in 24 seats , as shown in the table below. However, Congress’s higher strike rate against the JD(U) may also be attributed to the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) splitting votes and hurting JD(U)’s chances in many seats.
Congress’s overall improved performance in 2025, particularly in seats contested against the BJP, will be a crucial factor for the mahagatbandhan.
To complicate matters further, Congress faces friendly contests in five seats against the RJD, in four seats against the Left parties, and in one seat against a smaller partner, the Indian Inclusive Party. If 2025 is another close contest, these seats with friendly fights could come under scrutiny, especially if they are lost, as shown in the table below.
In the tables, MGB: Mahagatbandhan alliance; NDA; National Democratic Aliiance; IIP: Inclusive India Party; VIP: Vikassheel Insaan Party. Left parties mentioned include Communist Party of India: (CPI), Communist Party of India (Marxist): CP|(M), and Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) (Liberation): CPI(ML)(L). Janshakti Janta Dal (JJD) which is with the MGB alliance has not been included for the analysis.
The data for the charts were sourced from the Election Commission of India and Lok Dhaba.
vignesh.r@thehindu.co.in, sambavi.p@thehindu.co.in
Published – November 07, 2025 07:00 am IST
