It may not be an overwhelming win, but Congress is clearly ahead in Kerala: Shashi Tharoor

Did the Congress’s decision to field defected leaders from other parties cause any resentment within its rank and file?

We can all have opinions about the choice, but what’s encouraging is that everybody has now rallied behind. It’s no secret that many of us may have had different views about some of the decisions. But it’s truly welcome that there’s been no backbiting, no absenteeism from the polls, no one griping to the media, and above all, no rebels. So, we are all out there in strength and with unity.  

What is the sense that you are getting from the ground? 

For me, I get the impression from the ground that there is support in favour of the United Democratic Front (UDF). It may not be an overwhelming win, but we are clearly ahead, and the majority of voters are in a mood for change. I know that leaders have been talking about 85 to 100 seats. But in the end, what matters is securing a comfortable majority to run an effective government. 

In 2011, it was almost a close call for the UDF in Kerala. 

Yes, that was very close, and I certainly hope it will be less close this time. And indications, including some polls, suggest a better number this time. 

What are the issues projected in your campaign?

I have been focusing principally on the future. I speak about what an individual candidate can contribute and seek votes in order to bring a UDF government to power to end the 10 years of LDF (Left Democratic Front) misrule. For example, the disastrous financial health of the State is worrying. NITI Aayog has released a report ranking 18 major States in terms of financial management, and Kerala came 15th. This buttresses my argument that the Kerala model has been turned into a debt model by the State government. I point out this repeated habit of borrowing and the fact that they spend more on debt servicing and pensions than on development. We need a different approach that generates revenue, and it can’t be by taxation. Trying to find solutions through lotteries, remittances, and liquor taxes will not help the State in the long run. We have clear ideas.

Further, we desperately need to open up the State for business in a genuinely business-friendly way. Perhaps Kerala is the only State in the country where every file has to be signed by four people before anything moves. Decisions that may take two minutes in other countries can take 10 months in Kerala. This has to change. We should open up business investment in sectors such as AI, robotics, and machine learning. Port-led development is a major potential area because of our long coastline. We should also take advantage of the Centre’s new law that permits private investment in space tech.  

Reforming the higher education sector is another priority area. As an ageing society, we can also specialise essentially in the care of old people and become a model for the rest of India in how to manage ageing.  

In terms of development, the Left in Kerala is often criticised by detractors for no longer being the old Left, and for adopting neoliberal policies lately. 

First of all, they have not created the institutional structures needed to truly convince private sector investors to come in. The truth is that the Left has a serious credibility problem because, when they were in the Opposition, they were the most destructive Opposition imaginable with protests and hartals. So even if they are now trying to adopt positive policies, their credibility has not allowed them to attract any major investment to the State. They also made several claims that have since been debunked. 

But you have been in the dock in the past for supporting the State government’s development programmes…

I did support them when the startup ecosystem report said that Kerala has witnessed the most growth in startups. But it turned out that their claims were exaggerated. And therefore, I subsequently recanted it.

People often vote based on emotions rather than the development model presented by an alliance. What are the emotive issues taken up by the Congress? 

I think the likeability of candidates is a significant factor in elections, and the Left is banking massively on that. So, they are going around telling that even if there’s anti-incumbency overall, individual MLAs are liked. But our argument is that the government that has put debt on your grandchildren’s head has been supported by these MLAs

And in some parts of Kerala, things like the Sabarimala gold heist are very much emotional issues. 

Even in the case of infrastructure, the government has been shamelessly pointing to the Central government’s national highways. The State government’s fiscal management has been disastrous. It’s not something that people fully understand, but when you reduce it to the emotional issue of debt, ordinary people get it. 

A few weeks ago, there was a debate in the Congress about the prospective Chief Minister.

It will be decided after consultation with the elected MLAs, and ultimately by the High Command, which is how the party functions. 

Is the BJP likely to make significant gains in Kerala this time, especially in Thiruvananthapuram — your Lok Sabha constituency in which Nemon, which the BJP won in 2016, is located?

The BJP is a zero-seat party in the Kerala Assembly and this election is a straight fight between LDF and UDF. Even if they are able to get one or two or at most three seats — none of which is by any means certain — they cannot be relevant in government formation. This is not a BJP-driven election. 

Do you think the BJP will improve its vote share? 

When I first came here, the party had a 6% vote share. Today, they have around 12%, and have gone up to as much as 19% in recent parliamentary elections. Clearly, Mr. Modi has been a significant factor in this growth. However, a Parliament election is about who rules in Delhi. In Kerala I don’t see them going past the 12% level in the Assembly polls and their NDA partners can’t take them much higher.

You also alleged a tacit understanding between the BJP and the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) in some places.

It appears to be the case. It’s commonsensical to see that in places where the CPI(M) thinks it’s unviable, it may well want to throw some support to the BJP because they would want to divide the anti-incumbency vote. And in places where the BJP feels it has no chance, it would much rather see the Communists come back than the Congress because they rightly think that a victory in Kerala would be a major boost for the Congress nationally and would make us an even more formidable Opposition at the national level.

 But it doesn’t bother us what deals they make with each other, as our deal is with the people, and our deal is for better governance for Kerala and better results for the people.