As the war in West Asia rages on in its fourth week, European leaders have reached a consensus: not to be militarily involved. On March 16, following the EU’s Foreign Affairs Council meeting, most European leaders said an emphatic NO to getting involved in the Iran War.
On March 18, during his address to the Bundestag (German Parliament), Chancellor Friedrich Merz said that Germany would not participate in the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran.
Iran-Israel war updates on March 25, 2026
“To this day, there is no convincing plan as to how this operation could succeed. Washington has not consulted us and has not deemed European assistance necessary,” said Mr. Merz.
This is a far cry from the early days of the war when Germany, France and the U.K. put out a joint statement blaming Iran for its “reckless attacks”. Mr. Merz even went to the extent of saying that international law does not apply in Iran’s case. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Foreign Policy chief Kaja Kallas, who have blamed Iran for the conflict, have been more measured in their statements of late.
The change in attitude has been noticeable since U.S. President Donald Trump’s call for help regarding securing the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively shut since the war began on February 28. Roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and LNG flows through this strait.
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has been the only European leader who has not changed his stance. “We reject the unilateral military action of the United States and Israel, which represents an escalation and contributes to a more uncertain and hostile international order,” read a tweet from Mr. Sanchez on February 28. Spain has doubled down on its “no to war” statement, forcing many European countries to reconsider their positions.
“The position of EU member states is diverging quite significantly in the current conflict. Due to their different historical ties to Israel, members have different stances. Germany has a special relationship with Israel, given its history. This is also reflected towards Iran,” said Dr. Linn Selle, head of the Europe Centre at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP). According to her, even during the Iraq War in 2003, there were dramatic divisions within EU member states.
“On Iran, there are different shades of perspectives, but they aren’t fundamentally different. Following the EU Foreign Affairs Council meeting (on March 16), there is a developing cohesion among member states. EU-wide, there is no appetite for military support of this war,” said Ms. Selle.
Impact on Ukraine
Dr. Markus Loewe, economist and co-ordinator for research on the Middle East and North Africa at the German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS) noted that a vast number of Germans see this war as a violation of international law. A recent nation-wide survey from March 5 shows that 58% of German respondents called this war unjustified.
“The only reason Germany is not actively opposing the U.S.-Israel actions is fear of doing anything against the U.S. government’s will. Germany is worried that rejecting the U.S. would prompt it to withdraw support from Ukraine. But Germany also relies heavily on the U.S. for its own defence,” said Mr. Loewe.
On March 4, when Mr. Merz met Mr. Trump in the White House, he stated that Germany was “on the same page” as Mr. Trump on the goals of the Iran war. Mr. Merz’s silence as Mr. Trump threatened to “embargo” Spain drew backlash in Europe. In his defence, Mr. Merz said he defended the Spanish and U.K. leaders behind a closed door talk with Mr. Trump.
“The initial German reaction had been sort of based on pandering to the U.S. and now the realisation has begun to set in, given the domestic fallout of the war. Higher energy prices, domestic reverberations of the conflict, potential cyberattacks, and other fears around it. Germany is now more cautious of not being drawn into the conflict,” said Ms. Selle.
With the Russia-Ukraine war still on in Europe, the main priority of Germany and the EU is to ensure the U.S. continues to support Ukraine. German defence chief had also warned in June 2025 that Russia could expand this war to attack NATO countries by 2029.
“After Poland, Germany would be next in line if Russia decides to expand its operations,” said Mr. Loewe.
This prospect is alarming for Germany as it does not have its own nuclear deterrents. After the end of World War II, the U.S., the British, and the French promised to defend Germany because they did not want Germany to rearm. As a result, the German army is not the strongest and has limited strategic weapons because it has always relied on the U.S. for defence, noted Mr. Loewe. The U.S. even has its largest air force based outside the U.S. in Germany (at Ramstein), which serves as a critical logistics and command centre for the U.S. military.
“But this does not mean that Germany supports the Iran war. The base in Germany has always been treated as an extra-territorial base. When Mr. Trump asked other countries to support the U.S. in the Hormuz Strait, the German government rejected the request,” said Mr. Loewe.
“As military capacities are used in the Iran conflict and the Middle East region, there is less potential for military support to be sent to Ukraine. This is a concrete consequence of the Iran conflict. There is also a fear of political fallout,” said Ms. Selle.
On March 13, when Mr. Trump announced a 30-day waiver for countries to buy sanctioned Russian oil and petroleum products, it drew immediate criticism from Europe. “The unilateral decision by the U.S. to lift sanctions on Russian oil exports is very concerning, as it impacts European security. Weakening sanctions increases Russian resources to wage the war of aggression against Ukraine,” said European Council President António Costa on X.
The Brent Crude Index has gone up from $62 on March 2 and touched $114 on March 19. The latest escalation of the war caused by Israel’s attack on Iran’s South Pars gas field prompted retaliatory drone strikes by Iran on oil and gas sites in neighbouring Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. Many analysts warn that this attack, paired with the shutdown of the Hormuz Strait, could further spike oil and gas prices globally.
For Europe’s largest economy, Germany, which has seen negative growth for two successive years, this is not ideal news.
“Germany is not directly dependent on the Hormuz Strait and its closure doesn’t have a direct impact. But because of the volatile markets there is an immediate impact on Germany,” said Ms. Selle.
Economic shock
“For Germany, there is only a limited set of policy options in the short run. The country is exposed to fluctuations in international oil and gas prices, given its dependence on fossil fuel imports. If the conflict persists over a longer term, it will experience a slowdown in its economic recovery that is already under pressure with trade tensions with the US and eroding competitiveness of its exports in global markets,” said Dr. Sonali Chowdhry, trade economist at the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW).
Given the current fuel price shock, DIW has revised its forecast downward, projecting slower economic growth of 1% and higher inflation of 2.4% in Germany.
“Energy price hike will fuel inflation and will increase the cost for energy-intensive industries. We have suffered from a negative growth rate for the last two years, and 2026 was supposed to be the year of economic recovery. I don’t see that happening if the war prolongs,” said Mr. Loewe.
Ms. Chowdhry also expects a longer recovery time for the German economy. “A significant share of households’ consumption expenditure is on fuel. Shock to fuel prices, therefore, has important distributional effects and can exacerbate economic inequality. The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz also has implications for food security, with one-third of seaborne fertiliser trade using this route,” said Ms. Chowdhry.
Ms. Selle of DGAP feels it is too early to talk about economic recovery and it might be eaten up by rising energy costs.
Petrol pumps in Germany are already seeing a spike, forcing the German government to adopt the so-called Austrian model, which limits price increases at the pumps to just once a day.
“This threw a spotlight on the lack of competition within this sector in Germany, where a few businesses exercise control over the full value chain from running the refineries to operating the petrol stations,” said Ms. Chowdhry.
The reverberations of the energy shock will be felt Europe-wide. According to a report from the Atlantic Council, Europe’s gas storage levels are currently below 30%, a five-year low. They are supposed to reach 90% by November. With Qatar’s LNG supply effectively shut, and Europe rejecting Russian energy sources, this would mean Europe has to look for alternatives which could translate to higher prices.
Europe’s lack of influence
As per the recent statements of Ms. von der Leyen and Ms. Kallas, the Iranian regime is a threat to peace in West Asia. Neither of the two have publicly called out the U.S. and Israel for this war, but their statements have focused on de-escalation measures and reiterating that member states do not want to be dragged into the war. These double standards have drawn criticism from left-wing Members of the European Parliament.
Many Parliamentarians also allege that Ms. von der Leyen’s statements on the Iran War overstep her domain. Her direct diplomacy calls with Gulf Cooperation Council leaders, calls for a ‘credible transition in Iran’ fall under EU Council’s domain. Under EU rules, the EU Commission and its President have no formal foreign policy role.
“Ms. von der Leyen has raised the question as to what extent Europe can continue defending international law all the time, when others violate it. But if violating international law is justified when a purpose is met, that would set a precedent for the future,” said Mr. Loewe noting the constantly changing aims in the current war do not help matters. Mr. Trump has flip-flopped from neutralising imminent threats to regime change in Iran to dismantling Iran’s nuclear capabilities to annihilating the Iranian Navy since the start of the war.
“Europeans were at the frontline of negotiating the JCPOA, where they played a constructive role. But it is a very harsh escalation now. At the moment, Europeans are not the central actors. I hope that once there is an end to the conflict, there will be a more structured conversation of future reordering of relations, and the EU could play a role to ensure that the shipping routes are secured,” said Ms. Selle.
Mr. Loewe concurs that Europe has very little influence in the ongoing war. “What we could do is work towards stabilising countries in the Middle East, including Iran, from the inside. The worst-case scenario in this conflict is destabilisation in the Middle East or regime changes leading to civil wars or the fear of the new regimes becoming even more extremist,” said Mr. Loewe, noting that Germany and Europe could play the role of mediators in the future.
As for the economic backlash facing Europe, the European Central Bank has warned of inflation and economic slowdown if the war is prolonged.
“Given the high degree of uncertainty at the current stage, the ECB is expected to keep interest rates steady while closely monitoring the crisis to see how severe and long-lasting this shock might be,” said Ms. Chowdhry.
(Nimish Sawant is an independent journalist based in Berlin)
