India’s economy could double to more than USD 8 trillion over the next decade, Global investment firm KKR said, believing structural reforms can pay off. “The economy has now crossed USD 4 trillion, and we think it is on track to double again over the next ten years,” KKR said in its October 2026 “Thoughts From the Road Europe and Asia” report. According to KKR, India’s growth story is far from over and there is still meaningful upside to be unlocked from reforms already on the books, not just from new ones yet to come.
If India achieves this target, it will become the third-largest country in the world by GDP, after America and China, and will leave behind countries like Germany and Japan in one stroke.
At what pace can GDP grow?
KKR estimates that India can remain on track for 10-11 per cent nominal GDP growth in the coming years. The investment firm believes that several structural reforms undertaken since 2014 have expanded the economy’s potential and growth potential. These include the Goods and Services Tax (GST), the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC), labour market formalisation, digitalisation, and continued investment in infrastructure. According to KKR, these changes have not only improved the business environment but also reduced the risk premium associated with Indian cash flows.
The full impact of the reform is yet to be seen
KKR’s biggest positive signal regarding India’s growth is that it doesn’t consider it a finished story. Rather, it sees potential for further economic benefits from the reforms already implemented. This means that India doesn’t need to rely solely on new reforms to maintain growth; better implementation of existing reforms can also propel the economy forward. This could bring a large portion of the economy into a more organised system through changes like formalisation, better tax compliance, and digital infrastructure.
Expensive crude may create hurdles
KKR has expressed strong sentiment regarding India’s consumer-driven growth. Furthermore, rising incomes and increasing consumption are considered long-term growth drivers. However, crude oil prices remaining around $100 per barrel are expected to increase short-term pressure. KKR also says that due to government policies, the full impact of expensive crude has not reached the pockets of the common people. As a result, the impact of this oil price shock may be less than in previous events.
The service sector and the GCC will become new engines of growth
Services exports could play a larger role in India’s next growth story. According to KKR, Global Capability Centres (GCCs) are now becoming a key pillar of growth, surpassing traditional IT services. Services already contribute more than half of India’s real GDP growth. Therefore, India’s emergence as a hub for engineering, technology, analytics, and high-value corporate functions for global businesses could provide new impetus to the economy.
AI is not a threat to India, but a growth driver
While there is concern about jobs in the IT industry due to Artificial Intelligence (AI), KKR has a different view. According to the report, KKR hopes that Indian IT companies will rapidly incorporate AI into their service delivery systems. This will not only make AI a technology that disrupts traditional IT services, but can also become the next big engine of India’s growth. This means that in the coming years, Indian companies can move beyond low-value routine tasks and be in a position to provide AI-powered, high-value and more productive services.
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