Double engine: On the Bihar Assembly election 2025 result

The spectacular electoral victory of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Bihar is one built on clever welfarism, astute social engineering, meticulous propaganda and the sustained popularity of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the State. The Opposition Mahagatbandhan of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), the Congress and other outfits suffered from the adverse popular memory of their reign, which ended 20 years ago. The NDA nurtured women as a horizontal voting bloc, even brazenly starting a new cash dole scheme on the eve of the election. Its caste alliance covered a larger spectrum, compared to the Mahagatbandhan, which, despite its best efforts, could not overcome the perception of being a narrow platform for Yadavs and Muslims. Mr. Kumar, who entered the campaign as a fading patriarch, turned around his fortunes, reinforced his centrality in Bihar politics, and became the fulcrum of the NDA victory. The BJP is ahead of the Janata Dal (United) in terms of vote and seat shares, but its route to Bihar’s heart is still through Mr. Kumar. The NDA seems to have benefitted from a considerable increase in female voter turnout and from welfare schemes focused on women and Economically Backward Class (EBC) households through cash transfers and self-employment subsidies. Despite being in power since 2005, with only a short break, Mr. Kumar not only deflected anti-incumbency but also enhanced his standing. This worked in combination with the image of Mr. Modi, whose Hindutva-development claims have many takers in Bihar.

The Congress-RJD coalition failed to function as an organic platform, and its lack of cohesion and sense of purpose were all too evident. Its campaign was splintered, with its attention shifting between social justice and welfare slogans and a questioning of the integrity of the electoral process itself. India’s electoral process requires serious refurbishment, but does not seem to have much traction as an election issue. Also missing among the opponents of the BJP is an appreciation of the hegemony of Hindutva in the Hindi belt. There are many questions regarding the impartiality of the electoral process, but the conclusion that the BJP and its allies are winning only because of a compromised process is a misplaced one. While the NDA could mitigate the pitfalls of anti-incumbency, the Mahagatbandhan ended up holding the can for the misdeeds and misgovernance of a previous generation of its leaders. That is a sobering message for the Congress and all parties opposed to the BJP. They need to get their house in order, craft an inspiring message, and face up to the popularity of the BJP’s Hindutva politics while framing their opposition to it.