The financial world holds its breath for the Fed meeting

If it feels like we have lived through a filler episode before the big season finale, well, that’s because it’s fairly accurate.

Investors are anticipating the conclusion of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s meeting Wednesday, when they get to hear its interest rate decision and Chair Jerome Powell’s (arguably more important) press conference.

Markets were hence in an awkward limbo Tuesday. U.S. stocks declined, but only mildly. The S&P 500 dipped 0.13% — but still closed above the 6,600 level it broke Monday — and even hit a fresh intraday record earlier in the session.

In other words, investors didn’t seem to want to make any big moves before the Fed’s meeting ends.

Even news that broke yesterday stateside — while unrelated to the central bank and interest rates — were focused on casting an eye to the future rather than immediate developments. Further U.S.-China trade talks will happen before November, while President Donald Trump extended, for the fourth time, the deadline for ByteDance to divest TikTok’s U.S. business.

All of that contributed to the feeling of watching the credits roll just as a cliffhanger occurred.

(Spoiler alert: There’ll almost definitely be a 25 basis points rate cut — an extra-large 50 point slash is unlikely, unless the “outies” of some Fed officials overpower their independent “innies.”)

China maintains strict control over rare earths. Foreign companies are still finding it hard to access those minerals, with one losing “millions of euros,” according to the European Chamber of Commerce in China on Monday.

Baidu shares spike nearly 16% Wednesday. An artificial intelligence-related deal with a state-owned enterprise, advancements in the Baidu’s AI models and an offshore bond offering were events that contributed to investor enthusiasm.

Japan’s exports slow their decline. Trade with Asia and Western Europe climbed in August, which helped offset further drops in exports to the U.S. Overall, shipments fell 0.1% year on year, lower than expected.

U.S. stocks slip ahead of Fed meeting. All major indexes dipped slightly Tuesday, with tech shares such as Nvidia and Microsoft pulling back. Asia-Pacific markets were mixed Wednesday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Tech index surged as Baidu shares jumped.

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Fed set to cut rates, but forecast for rest of 2025 is key to markets with politics clouding the picture

The Federal Reserve meets this week with some big items on the agenda: An important rate decision and forecast of what’s ahead, combined with a healthy dose of political intrigue uncommon for central bank policymakers.

On the monetary side, the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday will release its ruling on where it will set the overnight borrowing rate. Politically, there will be one new Fed governor, President Donald Trump’s appointee Stephen Miran, who almost certainly will dissent from the widely expected decision to lower the federal funds rate by a quarter percentage point, opting for an even bigger cut.

— Jeff Cox