2,000-year-old Buddhist site in Kashmir faces “high risk of collapse by 2050”: study

Discovered following photographs found in a French museum archive in 2025, the 2,000-year-old Zehanpora Buddhist complex in north Kashmir’s Baramulla district faces “a high risk of collapse within the next three decades”, according to a study by experts.

Predicting future erosion possibilities, the study estimates that 10,122 square metres “could be lost by 2050 without undertaking any preventive interventions”. The study has been undertaken by experts Bilal Hassan, Mohammad Ajmal Shah, and Mumtaz A. Yatoo, from the Centre of Central Asian Studies, University of Kashmir, Srinagar, and has been published in the Ancient Asia journal in July this year.

It studied soil erosion at the Buddhist archaeological site located on the Jhelum River bank in Baramulla by using Remote Sensing (RS) and GIS. “Analysing Landsat and Google Earth imagery (1976-2022), we quantified cumulative spatial changes relative to the 1976 baseline channel area. The reach experienced significant lateral land erosion (32.5%) alongside massive fluvial deposition (71.6%), culminating in a net channel expansion of 39.1% driven by aggressive meander migration,” it said.

The study noted that the highest erosion recorded was between 1989-2000, of about 3,616 square metres per year, and based its warning about the likely threat to the site by 2050.

“The average annual erosion rate increased from 818.15 square metre per year in 1976–1989 to 3,616.09 square metre per year in 1989-2000. It then decreased significantly to 361.50 m²/year in 2000–2022. Similarly, the average annual deposition rate also increased from 2,453.15 square metre per year in 1976-1989 to 3,082.18 square metre per year in 1989-2000. It then decreased to 2,853.95 square metre per year in 2000–2022,” the study said.

The experts stressed in the study that this research represented a primary application of these remote sensing techniques “to facilitate the quantitative protection of an archaeological site within the Kashmir Valley”.

The experts suggested that the study underlined a clear data-driven foundation for policymakers and conservation bodies “to move from passive monitoring to active, informed intervention to safeguard this irreplaceable piece of Kashmir’s history”.

The study stressed that this research represented a primary application of these remote sensing techniques “to facilitate the quantitative protection of an archaeological site within the Kashmir Valley”.

Zehanpora village, about 10 km from Baramulla town, is located on the right bank of the Jhelum River. The Zehanpora Buddhist site was once located on an ancient route linking Kashmir with Gandhara and Central Asia, according to the study. However, the landscape in and around the site was heavily altered in the 1970s by canal and road construction, which bifurcated the single landscape into the two cultural landscapes and caused severe erosion around the Buddhist stupa, now at risk of collapse, it added.

“The region has long been a trade and cultural link to Central Asia, with exchanges evident from the 5th/4th millennium. It hosts Neolithic and later sites such as Kanispur and Bomai, showing habitation from the Upper Palaeolithic onwards,” the study said.

The site spread over 10 acres attracted a spotlight in 2025 after a historical photograph from a French museum archive matched the mounds in the area. It has multiple stupas, apsidal prayer halls, monk residences (viharas), and stone foundations. Prime Minister Narendra Modi also highlighted the importance of the site in his Mann ki Baat broadcast on December 28, 2025.

Meanwhile, in the Indian context, the study underlined, erosion along the Ganga River has severely impacted ancient settlements and temples in Bihar and West Bengal, with satellite monitoring showing rapid river course migration. “On the Brahmaputra, studies have documented large-scale riverbank retreat destroying villages and cultural landscapes in Assam. Likewise, in Gujarat, intertidal erosion near the Gulf of Khambhat threatens Harappan coastal sites, highlighting the combined role of geomorphic processes and human activity,” it added.