Why a divided Opposition may give an edge to DMK

The Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK) general secretary T. T. V. Dhinakaran’s recent claim that his party’s participation in the electoral fray during the 2021 Assembly poll caused the defeat of the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK)  in a number of constituencies has highlighted the likely impact of a divided Opposition in the State in the 2026 Assembly election.

Even though Mr Dhinakaran claimed his party tilted the scales in 29 constituencies, a study by this correspondent reveals there were 20 seats wherein the votes polled by the AMMK and its allies were higher than the difference between the winner (DMK and allies) and the runner-up (AIADMK, Pattali Makkal Katchi [PMK] and the Bharatiya Janata Party [BJP]).  When the 2021 situation is compared with the performance of the formations led by the DMK and the AIADMK along with that of the front that included the AMMK during the 2024 Lok Sabha election,  the combined Opposition would have been ahead of the ruling DMK-led front in seven Assembly segments and a close fight in three others. 

In 2021, the AMMK had a tie-up with the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK), the (All India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul-Muslimeen (AIMIM) and the Social Democratic Party of India (SDPI). In 2024, the AMMK was a part of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) . The PMK, Tamil Maanila Congress (Moopanar), Thamizhaga Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam and the faction led by AIADMK’s former coordinator O. Panneerselvam  were other constituents of the NDA.  

Of the 20 constituencies in 2021 where the AMMK made a difference to the outcome, nine were in southern districts; six in the north and the balance five in the Cauvery delta region.  Even though the AMMK’s nominees could retain deposit only in three — Mannargudi, Karaikudi and Sattur, the party’s candidates  put up an impressive performance in some other places — more than 30,000 votes in Thiruvadanai and Nanguneri;  around 22,000 votes  in Sankarankovil and almost 20,000 votes  in Papanasam. 

In 2024, the NDA, which was stronger artithmetically than the AMMK-headed front of 2021, had polled higher votes than the other in 17 Assembly segments.  In six places — T. Nagar (coming under the South Chennai Lok Sabha constituency); Nanguneri (coming under the Tiruneveli Lok Sabha constituency); Thiruvadanai (Ramanathapuram); Andipatti (Theni); Tenkasi (Tenkasi) and Neyveli (Cuddalore), its vote share ranged from 36.4% to 25.5 %.

Despite the AIADMK and the BJP having stitched an alliance about five months ago, recent political developments have made the position in respect of the Opposition more fluid. For instance, the PMK, which remained with the BJP in 2024,  appears on the verge of a vertical split with the party’s founder S. Ramadoss having expelled his son and former Union Minister Anbumani Ramadoss from the organisation. [Mr Anbumani’s supporters have contested this.] The AMMK and Mr Panneerselvam have left the NDA.  To make the situation more complex, the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam’s founder and actor Vijay, who is on a State-wide tour, is focussing his attack on the ruling party, a strategy that may lead to the split in the anti-DMK votes.