The Fed decides on interest rates Wednesday. Here’s what to expect

This week’s Federal Reserve meeting offers little suspense and probably not much action, even as massive changes loom over the central bank’s longer-term direction.

Judging by market expectations and policymakers’ comments, there’s virtually no chance the Fed will change its benchmark interest rate when the meeting ends Wednesday.

Despite a recent spate of disagreements among Federal Open Market Committee members about the longer-term trajectory of monetary policy, the near-term stance likely will be one of patience as a series of cuts made last year work their way through the economy.

“Overall, the Fed just wants to stand pat. They feel they’ve got time to wait and see,” former Fed Vice Chair Roger Ferguson said in a CNBC interview Monday. “This feels like a wait-and-see meeting, and we should all be listening to see if there’s any hint or a bias towards a future action.”

Indications of where the FOMC heads from here would come from the post-meeting policy statement as well as Chair Jerome Powell‘s news conference afterward. Markets currently expect the Fed to cut once or twice this year — most likely in June and December, according to futures market pricing gauged by the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

However, the focus most certainly will lie beyond the interest rate decision and future guidance and into an unprecedented web of intrigue that surrounds the meeting.

Storm around Powell

For one, President Donald Trump told CNBC last week that he may have narrowed down his search for Powell’s replacement to a single candidate, a nomination that could be announced this week and perhaps even timed to coincide with the Fed rate decision.

“If there is a single most likely window, it’s during the January FOMC — particularly if Trump is looking
to redirect attention away from a Fed that didn’t cut,” Stephanie Roth, senior economist at Wolfe Research, said in a note. “More broadly, the decision could come as soon as this week, or within the next couple of weeks.”

Also operating in the background: The Justice Department has served Powell with a subpoena seeking information on the Fed’s massive renovation project on its Washington, D.C., headquarters. In an unusually candid videotaped statement, Powell called the probe a “pretext” for Trump’s desire to bully the Fed into cutting rates even more aggressively than it has in recent months.

There’s uncertainty elsewhere, too, with Trump’s effort to unseat Fed Governor Lisa Cook over mortgage fraud allegations in front of the U.S. Supreme Court last week, and Trump appointee Stephen Miran’s term expiring Saturday. Fed governors can serve until they are replaced, so it’s not clear how much longer Miran will stay on the board. He dissented from each of last year’s three, quarter-percentage-point rate cuts, favoring even larger moves.

So while the market will pay close attention to interest rate developments and indications, much of the scrutiny will go towards the ancillary events that have rocked the central bank.

Political pressures

“While the Fed has been politically pressured to cut rates, it is not pressed by the data,” wrote Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon. However, Powell “is likely to refrain from commenting directly on the Department of Justice probe involving himself and the Fed, as well as the Supreme Court’s pending ruling related to Governor Cook.”

That won’t stop media members from asking, though.

“Powell will be asked about his video warning that Trump DoJ subpoenas and other actions seek
to subject monetary policy to the ‘preferences of the president,” Krishna Guha, head of global policy and central bank strategy at Evercore ISI, said in a note. “We think he will stand by everything he said and express faith in the Supreme Court as the final arbiter of Fed independence.”

Absent further political developments, that will bring the focus back to policy.

Markets will look to decipher whether the hold this month is hawkish, the precursor of an extended period of no cuts, or dovish, in which Powell and the committee indicate that more cuts are likely, just not now.

Morgan Stanley chief economist Michael Gapen expects to see a tilt toward dovish.

“We think recent stabilization in the labor market and solid activity data will be the main drivers behind the decision to pause rate cuts, while incoming data on inflation will keep the Fed confident enough about disinflation later this year to retain an easing bias,” Gapen said in a note. “We do not believe committee members are ready to signal an end to the cutting cycle.”

Gapen is also looking for several changes in the post-meeting statement, likely reflecting an upgrade to economic growth and a removal of language on increased downside risks to employment.