The chances of widespread rainfall across the region remain low.
| Photo Credit: NAGARA GOPAL
After a prolonged and punishing summer, the monsoon has finally reached Hyderabad and Telangana. However, its onset has been underwhelming and is expected to stay weak over the next few weeks. While there may be occasional bursts of heavy rain, most rainfall in the coming days will likely be light to moderate, according to meteorologists at the Telangana Development Planning Society (TGDPS).
“The monsoon is not showing signs of strengthening even through July so far,” said senior weather consultant Y.V. Rama Rao in an exclusive interaction. “The chances of widespread rainfall across the region remain low. There are no indications of low-pressure systems developing in either the Bay of Bengal or the Arabian Sea—systems that typically bring more extensive rainfall at this time of year.”
In recent years, citizens had grown accustomed to an early monsoon. This time, the delay extended the heatwave, making conditions especially harsh. Temperatures remained 2–5°C above normal until the second week of June, when the monsoon usually sets in. Daytime temperatures exceeded 40°C in several areas, while Hyderabad recorded highs between 38°C and 40°C. Night-time temperatures also stayed elevated, hovering between 22°C and 28°C.
“The persistence of northern airflows is still bringing hot winds from central India, where temperatures remain high,” explained Mr. Rama Rao. “Though the monsoon has advanced up to Bhadradri Kothagudem, conditions remain subdued here. Rainfall has been normal in Kerala but more widespread in the northeast.”
That said, increased cloud cover and gradual monsoon spread are expected to ease temperatures by a couple of degrees in the coming days. However, larger climate factors may influence the season. The ongoing El Nino — characterised by the warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean — could weaken monsoon activity. There is, however, a possibility of improvement if the Indian Ocean Dipole turns positive or if the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) enters its wet phase, which could enhance rainfall.
Meanwhile, the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) reports that El Nino conditions in the Pacific have strengthened significantly, with probabilities reaching up to 90%, potentially persisting until February 2027. Sea surface temperature anomalies observed in May confirm the onset of El Nino, with probabilities of 70-90%. ENSO-neutral conditions remain a secondary possibility at 10-30%, while La Nina is highly unlikely, said senior scientist P.A. Francis.
El Nino is also associated with prolonged marine heatwaves in the northern Indian Ocean, which can disrupt marine ecosystems, damage coral reefs, and impact fisheries — adding another layer of concern to an already subdued monsoon outlook.
Published – June 12, 2026 09:06 pm IST
