Monsoon clouds cover the sky in Ernakulam on Tuesday evening. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday predicted that the southwest monsoon is likely to arrive in Kerala by June 4.
| Photo Credit: H. VIBHU
The southwest monsoon, which missed its predicted onset date of May 26 and the normal onset date of June 1 over Kerala this season, is finally set to begin on June 4, 2026. However, just like the sluggish progress of the monsoon current so far this season, the monsoon is likely to remain sluggish over Kerala in June after a relatively vigorous onset.
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A cyclonic circulation that was lying close to the Kerala coast until Tuesday had been delaying the progress of the monsoon current, although the monsoon stream had reached the Andaman Sea and South Sri Lanka ahead of schedule on May 16. Though southern Kerala received some benefit from the cyclonic circulation, the system prevented the establishment of the monsoon conditions over north Kerala. The northward movement of the system has now almost cleared the way for the monsoon’s progress, with the current expected to spread across the entire mainland of the State within a day or two, said Neetha K. Gopal, Director of the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
However, after a stormy onset lasting about seven days, the monsoon current is expected to lose pace and rhythm over the State, raising concerns about a deficient rainfall season in Kerala during June, said Ms. Gopal.
The IMD has also forecast a bleak monsoon season for Kerala and the rest of India, which is likely to be aggravated by unusually warm ocean waters in the tropical Pacific, where El Niño conditions are developing. These conditions are expected to influence global temperature and rainfall patterns, increasing the risk of dryness across the Indian subcontinent, she added.
Risk of drought
Traditionally, June and July together contribute more than 60% of the seasonal rainfall Kerala receives during the four-month southwest monsoon season. A decline in rainfall during these two months would increase the risk of drought in the coming summer season. During El Niño years, the development of rain-bearing systems over the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea is generally weaker than during La Niña years. La Niña strengthens trade winds and alters planetary atmospheric circulation in a manner that typically favours increased rainfall over the Indian subcontinent, depending on the season.
When the southwest monsoon overshot its normal onset date by about a week in 2016 and 2023, making its onset over Kerala on June 8 in both years, the monsoon season ended with scanty rainfall. This was followed by drought-like conditions and unusually high summer temperatures, according to IMD data.
The IMD has issued an orange alert for four districts—Alappuzha, Kottayam, Ernakulam, and Thrissur—on Wednesday, warning of intense rainfall. Similarly, eight districts from Thiruvananthapuram to Thrissur have been put on orange alert for Thursday, while the remaining districts are on yellow alert on both days, warning of isolated heavy rainfall, according to the latest update of the IMD.
Published – June 02, 2026 08:47 pm IST
