Key parties in Tamil Nadu draw up strategies as 2026 Assembly election draws closer

Political parties in Tamil Nadu have started making calculations in the run-up to the next year’s Assembly poll in the State. 

Early this week, Chief Minister and the ruling DMK president, M. K. Stalin “fixed a target” of 2.5 crore votes for the formation headed by his party. He had also pointed out that in the 2021 Assembly election, the DMK-led front netted about 2.09 crore votes. Besides, their count was that 1.86 crore persons had been directly getting benefitted out of the DMK regime’s welfare measures.

The ruling party’s traditional adversary, the AIADMK, is also banking on the performance put up by it and its key ally, BJP during the 2024 Lok Sabha election. At that time, the two parties headed separate coalitions, which, put together, obtained around 41% of votes polled.  In terms of absolute figures, they had secured close to 1.8 crore votes against the DMK-led alliance’s 2.05 crore votes with a vote share of 46.9%. 

The fledgling Tamila Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) , which will be entering the electoral fray for the first time next year, is said to be basing its strength on its belief that on the ground that it has at least one supporter in every ration card out of a total  2.28 crore ration cards in the State.  The total number of beneficiaries including those aged below the voting age of 18 years is approximately seven crore, according to the data available with the State Civil Supplies and Consumer Protection department. 

Compared to the situation in 2021, the composition of the DMK’s front has one more party – the Makkal Needhi Maiam (MNM). Even though the MNM had cornered 12.1 lakh votes in the last Assembly election, its presence in the front did not appear to have given additional strength in the Lok Sabha poll, as the total number of votes secured by the DMK-led front was about four lakh less than what it got in 2021.  There is a possibility of some more new entrants later. However, the target of 2.5 crore appears to be daunting, even assuming that the special intensive revision (SIR) exercise of electoral rolls in the State does not lead to a drastic reduction in the size of the electorate.  At the beginning of this year, the State’s total number of electors was about 6.36 crore. 

AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K. Palaniswami.
| Photo Credit:
S.R. RAGHUNATHAN

As for the AIADMK’s calculation, the possibility of a repeat performance by the BJP does not look bright. Two of the national party’s 2024 allies – the Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK) led by T.T.V. Dhinakaran and the group owing allegiance to former Chief Minister O. Panneerselvam – have formally distanced themselves from the BJP.  Another partner, Pattali Makkal Katchi, is experiencing  an intense power struggle between the factions headed by the founder S. Ramadoss and his son and former Union Minister Anbumani Ramadoss.  At present, only the Tamil Maanila Congress (Moopanar) and a few smaller parties are seen in the company of the AIADMK-BJP combine.

It remains to be seen how many former allies of the BJP will be part of the Opposition’s front.