Kerala Assembly Elections 2026: A do-or-die battle for major fronts, their skippers

The stakes are so high in the Kerala State Assembly polls on April 9 that the public campaign has been no-holds-barred, often descending into ad hominem attacks that have breached the bounds of civility. 

The Congress, and the United Democratic Front (UDF) by extension, is in a swim-or-sink situation, as evident from its skipper V.D. Satheesan’s vow to relinquish politics if the alliance loses the polls. Having been in the political wilderness for a decade, a period that also saw the Kerala Congress (Mani) crossing over to the Left Democratic Front (LDF), the Congress and the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), the second-largest party in the UDF, cannot afford to sit out of power for another five years. Such an outcome, it is believed, could lead to a loss of face for the Congress nationally, an internal collapse of the organisational structure, and a possible disintegration of the alliance. 

Curiously, the same holds true for the Left Democratic Front (LDF) as well. Having suffered a series of setbacks in the Assembly bypolls, the Lok Sabha elections, and the local body polls, the Assembly elections will be a test of the Left’s credentials, the front’s cohesiveness, and its ability to arrest any erosion of votes from its erstwhile strongholds and the communities that had traditionally supported it. As senior journalist M.G. Radhakrishnan put it in a conversation with The Hindu, a loss in the only Indian State ruled by it, as the Indian communist movement enters its centenary phase, will be dramatic and bad optics for the Communist Party of India (Marxist) [CPI(M)] and the LDF. Fault lines in the party organisation could then unravel. Whether the alliance would remain in its present form in the event of a defeat is worth watching. 

The Left has invested heavily in the strongman, crisis-manager image of CPI(M) Politburo member and Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, with the campaign entirely hinging on his leadership. While the party had rested the senior leadership in 2021 ostensibly to launch an array of emerging leaders in parliamentary positions, Mr. Vijayan continues to be the helmsman of the alliance going into the election. The only one in the CPI(M) to have received multiple exemptions to the rules set by the party, any dent in the front’s fortunes will therefore be invariably read as a verdict on his actions, abilities and demeanour. That said, a win would further raise him to iconic status. 

Strangely enough, while the Congress-led UDF has a plethora of national leaders campaigning across the State, Leader of the Opposition V.D. Satheesan is being projected by many, including Congress supporters on social media, as a counterweight to Mr. Vijayan. Parallels are drawn between both leaders—seen as hard-nosed, uncompromising, decisive and doers—and an electoral setback would be enough to put his political future in a bind. However, if the front wins, he could rise to an unassailable position on the State’s political landscape as an astute planner and a challenger. 

While it is not an equally dire situation for the BJP and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), it will be decisive for them as well, having seen a slump in their vote share in the local body elections. A negative outcome could cast a long shadow over their electoral fortunes in the State in future. The alliance could come a cropper. But if they manage to put up a showing that matches their high-voltage electioneering, it will mark an inflection point in Kerala’s electoral history. 

Heated exchanges of allegations of collusion and vote-trading engulfed a major part of the short campaigning phase. While all three fronts placed extra emphasis on welfare initiatives, focus on the development aspects was fleeting. Defections from the Left and the issues surrounding Sabarimala came to the fore in the initial days. If the proposed amendments to the Foreign Contribution (Regulation) amendment Bill became a talking point in central Kerala, placing the BJP on the defensive, the Congress’s promise of building houses for the victims of the Wayanad landslides got spotlighted in the final days of the poll campaign.