India braces for ‘below-normal’ rainfall in August; Telangana to see ‘normal to above-normal’ rains

Even as large parts of the country brace for a relatively dry second half of the southwest monsoon (August-September), Telangana could buck the trend, with the State falling largely in the normal to above-normal rainfall zone for August, according to the latest outlook of the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

The outlook, released on Friday (July 31, 2026), presents a relatively favourable rainfall picture for Telangana at a time when rainfall across the country as a whole is projected to remain below normal during the August-September period.

The IMD’s spatial probability map for August places much of Telangana in areas where normal to above-normal rainfall is the most likely outcome. The national weather agency also identifies many areas of eastern Peninsular India as an exception to the predominantly below-normal rainfall outlook prevailing across the country.

Variations within Telangana

The forecast, however, does not mean that rainfall will be uniform across Telangana. The probability map shows variations within the State, with different areas falling under normal and above-normal categories, while some pockets have no clear forecasting signal.

The broader picture for the remaining two months of the monsoon is somewhat more mixed. The August-September probability map shows varying rainfall signals across Telangana rather than placing the entire State in one category. The IMD said some parts of Peninsular India and central India are likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall during the period, even though rainfall over the country as a whole is expected to be below normal.

Above-normal maximum temperatures probable in Telangana

While the rainfall outlook offers some cheer, August could also bring warmer conditions. The IMD’s temperature probability maps indicate that Telangana largely leans towards above-normal maximum temperatures during the month. Minimum temperatures, too, show an above-normal tendency over the State, pointing to the possibility of warmer days as well as nights.

The outlook also comes at a time when moderate El Nino conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The IMD said these conditions are expected to strengthen further during the remaining southwest monsoon season.

Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions, another large-scale climate factor associated with the Indian monsoon, are currently neutral. The IMD’s forecasting system expects neutral conditions to persist through the remaining monsoon season, though some international forecasting centres suggest that a positive IOD could develop during September.