Anti-incumbency dashes Left’s hopes in local body polls in Kerala

The writing on the wall is clear for the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF), which is in its second term in the State Assembly and has tasted back-to-back wins in the local body elections of 2015 and 2020: it’s going to face strong headwinds as it gears up for the Assembly polls three months down the line. There’s a subterranean wave of anti-incumbency sweeping the State.  

But there is more to the win posted by the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) than meets the eye. The rout of the Left is more pronounced and decisive in Kottayam, Idukki, Ernakulam and Malappuram districts — old citadels of the UDF — where a consolidation of anti-Left votes seems to have taken place.

Across the State, urban voters in municipalities and Corporations turned their back on the Left, favouring the UDF, and in some cases, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by the BJP. The CPI(M) will have to rack its brains over the fact that similar to the Thiruvananthapuram Corporation, where it ceded ground to the BJP, the Left front finished way off the mark in many of its traditional strongholds, such as the Kollam Corporation.

In municipalities such as Chengannur and Mavelikara in Alappuzha, the alliance faced the ignominy of being pushed to the third position. The Left’s polemic against an understanding between the Congress and its UDF ally Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) and radical elements – read Welfare Party of India – seems to have backfired, causing a consolidation in favour of the UDF in the northern districts.

Nor has the Left been able to check the continuing erosion of traditional Hindu votes from its kitty. A pollster points out that all the frenzy drummed up over the Ayyappa Sangamam before the Sabarimala gold misappropriation case turned the tables against it was wasted rhetoric. However, it can take solace in the fact that for a formation that’s been in power for a decade, the front has done reasonably well in rural areas and some municipalities in the south.

While it lost the Thrissur Corporation, its voter base remained intact in the local bodies across Thrissur, where the BJP’s overtures to the Christian voters hardly found takers. There was no Suresh Gopi factor, either. In central Kerala and the hill districts, a consolidation of Christian votes may have occurred in favour of the UDF except in isolated pockets like Poonjar Thekkekara which sided with the NDA.  

The LDF’s decision to field Independent candidates to appeal to these voters, including the traditional voters of the Kerala Congress (M) in some areas in central Kerala and largely in Malappuram, did not cut ice. Some in the CPI(M) feel that the party should’ve placed more emphasis on the track-record of the government rather than harp on Sabarimala or the cases against Palakkad MLA Rahul Mamkootathil.  

“The clincher on ‘extreme poverty eradication’ was meant to be the launch of the election campaign, but that found no mention at the hustings. In fact, we could not create a dominant poll narrative around the achievements and programmes of the government,” rued a Leftist veteran.  

While the win will boost the morale of the Congress and certainly the IUML in the run-up to the Assembly elections, they would have to curb the growth of the BJP to be able to avert a hung verdict in 2026. The NDA either retained its position or improved its tally in most urban local bodies except, evidently, in Pandalam municipality, which returned a hung verdict, and in Palakkad municipality, where the alliance emerged as the single largest formation despite serious internal wrangling. Its urban spring apart, the growth of the formation in the rural belts looks incremental.

But its big upset win in Thiruvananthapuram could work as a template and an exemplar heading for the Assembly polls early next year.