A false high: On voter turnout data, SIR impact

There is a tendency in India to reduce democracy to the mere conduct of elections, and to confine political life to “political society” — that subset of the population actively engaged in setting policy and in mediating welfare delivery. This points to a democracy that falls short of a deliberative or deeply participative model, even in socio-economically better-off States such as Tamil Nadu (T.N.) and Kerala. Yet, elections are not a one-off event, and turnout remains a useful dipstick for the vibrancy of the democratic exercise, particularly in India where the poorer sections vote in large numbers. By that measure, the headline figures from T.N. and the first phase of the poll in West Bengal appear daunting and unprecedented. According to provisional Election Commission of India (ECI) data, 93.2% of voters turned out in the first phase in West Bengal and 85.1% in T.N. These record numbers must be read against the backdrop of the ECI’s Special Intensive Revision (SIR), which led to massive net voter deletions. In T.N., the rolls shrank by 10.5% from the pre-SIR figure, while in West Bengal nearly 13% of the electorate was deleted, with the eligibility of lakhs of voters still being heard by tribunals. If this is factored in, the percentage turnout begins to look inflated by a reduced denominator (total electorate) rather than by genuinely expanded participation (the numerator). The absolute increase in turnout in T.N. — about 27 lakh votes on provisional figures — was in fact among the lowest in recent electoral cycles, suggesting that wrongful deletions may have suppressed real participation even if the SIR did clear the electoral rolls of those who had died or moved out. The effect was sharpest in cities such as Chennai, where several constituencies recorded turnout above 80%, a jump of over 20 percentage points, even though the absolute number of voters — around 24 lakh — remained virtually unchanged from the 2021 elections.

It is also difficult to read too much into turnout in either State. High turnout has long been a feature of politically charged West Bengal, and T.N. has also been no slouch in recent electoral cycles compared to the rest of India. Also, political scientists have found little correlation between turnout levels and pro- or anti-incumbency outcomes. Once published, turnout percentages tend to acquire a life of their own and are cited as proof of democratic enthusiasm or the strength of a mandate, or, in T.N.’s case, the impact of a new political player such as actor Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam. But a percentage is only as meaningful as the denominator it rests on, and in these two States, the denominator itself has been substantially altered. Turnout figures must therefore be read alongside how the electorate was determined before any conclusions about the mandate are drawn from the actual results.