Dark clouds hovering over Ongole on Thursday. The intermittent drizzles in the last few days have brought relief to the people from the scorching heat.
| Photo Credit: KOMMURI SRINIVAS
Even as Andhra Pradesh is likely to witness an overall below-normal rainfall southwest monsoon, there is a possibility of short-duration, high-intensity rains in a few places, D. Sivananda Pai, a senior scientist at India Meteorological Department (IMD) and Head of the Regional Meteorological Centre, Chennai, has said.
Dr. Sivananda Pai was in Vijayawada to attend the stakeholders’ meeting organised by the IMD-Amaravati on ‘Southwest Monsoon 2026 Outlook – Preparedness and Multi-Hazard Weather Warning Services’, held at the National Institute of Disaster Management near Agiripalli on June 2.
Speaking to The Hindu on the sidelines of the event, Dr. Pai said the weather models for Andhra Pradesh indicate a possibility of formation of low-pressure systems at much lower altitudes this monsoon soon, which may lead to one-day or two-day heavy rainfalls in coastal areas, limiting the impact of El Nino in the State. But, such events in short duration may trigger urban flooding.
“The low-pressure systems, usually formed over the north Bay of Bengal, move along the Odisha coast to reach Rajasthan and bring widespread rain along the way. This time, the systems, if they are formed, may not travel long, but are likely to stop short after entering A.P. and Telangana,” he said.
Therefore, the two Telugu States may receive heavy rain but the other States may not, despite the El Nino conditions.
Dr. Pai said if no low-pressure systems are formed, then the State’s rainfall may be largely deficient.
Referring to the weather models, the scientist said the State is likely to see more thunderstorms, lightning and strong winds this season, affecting the agricultural activities.
A.P. hardest hit in 2002
According to data from O.P. Sreejith, an IMD scientist working at Climate Research and Services, Pune, between 1950 and 2025, El Nino conditions were experienced 17 times. Andhra Pradesh recorded largely deficient rainfall during the southwest monsoon in the years 1963, 1968, 1972, 1982, 1987, 1994, 2002 and 2004, with 2002 being the hardest hit. While the normal rainfall for the season is 521.6 mm, the deficit rainfall during the SW monsoon in 2002 stood at 39.7%.
During the previous El Nino year in 2023, the State’s deficit rainfall during the SW monsoon stood at 6.8%.
Every El Nino year is unique as there are multiple factors at play. Asked about how the rainfall distribution is going to be this season in the State, Dr. Sreejith said the deficiency ‘may not be large’. However, the monsoon will be below-normal, he added.
Published – June 05, 2026 12:43 pm IST
