Minorities in Kerala, who make up around 47 per cent of the State’s population, remain a decisive factor in determining the poll outcomes in a region long known for its bipolar politics.
Wooing the minority voters has been high on the agenda of all the political fronts in the State. The Congress’ long-standing association with the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), a predominantly Muslim political outfit, has ensured a significant number of Muslim votes are polled in favour of the United Democratic Front. In contrast, The CPI (M)-led LDF has had to mostly satisfy itself with the support of splinter Muslims groups and rebels from the League. However, the CPI (M) have often tried to swing the Muslim votes in its favour through its stance on international and national issues which would resonate well with the community.
Realising that it needs to claim a share of the minority votes to make a foothold in the electoral politics of Kerala, the BJP has been trying all the tricks up its sleeve to win the confidence of sections of the Christian community, hoping this support will translate into electoral gains.
With the Assembly elections approaching, all three fronts are once again making concerted efforts to appeal to minority voters.
It is often assessed that a section of neutral Muslim voters had backed the LDF in both 2016 and 2021 Assembly polls, largely because the BJP was in power at the Centre. The Left had successfully projected itself as the most credible force capable of resisting right-wing politics, especially amid perceptions that the Congress had failed to effectively counter the BJP.
However, community insiders feel that the sentiment appears to be shifting. Sections of the Muslim community are increasingly disenchanted with the LDF, particularly over the CPI(M)’s perceived hobnobbing with SNDP Yogam general secretary Vellappalli Natesan following his disparaging remarks against sections of the community. “The CPI(M)’s stance has hurt large sections of ordinary Muslims, even though some intellectuals within the community continue to support the Left,” says Siraj Karoly, a lawyer.
The Samastha Kerala Jamiyyathul Ulama and its affiliates have traditionally leaned towards the UDF and many within various Mujahid groups are also expected to back it. The Welfare Party of India, the political wing of Jamaat-e-Islami, has formally extended its support to the UDF. Until 2019, the Jamaat-e-Islami had supported the LDF.
The Sunni faction led by Kanthapuram A.P. Aboobacker Musliar is yet to declare its position, though it has historically aligned with the Left. The CPI(M)’s silence on Vellappalli’s remarks is said to have caused discomfort within this camp as well.
Meanwhile, smaller but notable outfits such as the SDPI and PDP are likely to support the LDF in select constituencies. Their limited backing, however, also draws attention to the increasingly visible role of community-based political alignments.
The Christian factor
Once seen as a cohesive block capable of swinging results across central Kerala, the Christian vote today is far more fragmented, yet no less decisive. Christians account for over 18 per cent of the State’s population.
The long-running Malankara Church dispute remains a defining factor for both Jacobite and Orthodox factions, shaping political preferences in a handful of constituencies across central and south Kerala.
The Jacobite Church, for instance, has signalled support for those who have stood by its cause, a position widely seen as aligning it with the Left. The Orthodox faction, in contrast, has taken a sharply different stance, openly expressing dissatisfaction with governments that have failed to implement court orders on the Church dispute.
Pentecostal groups, meanwhile, are emerging as a distinct political constituency, with sections showing a noticeable tilt towards the Left this time.
For political parties, this means there is no single narrative that can win over the Christian electorate. Success will depend on understanding its many layers, responding to local concerns and navigating denominational dynamics with care.
The temple factor
The politics surrounding the Sabarimala temple continues to shape Kerala’s electoral landscape. The alleged gold theft and the ongoing court proceedings related to the entry of women of all ages have once again brought the issue back into focus. The UDF is seeking to keep the issue alive, sensing political advantage. The LDF, however, rejects claims of losing ground and is banking on its revised stance on the women’s entry issue, while highlighting steps taken to investigate alleged irregularities.
On its part, the BJP does not appear keen to project the Sabarimala issue as a key poll plank except in a few constituencies such as Aranmula.
Published – March 28, 2026 10:00 pm IST
