The West Bengal Assembly election, to be held in two phases on April 23 and 29, is shaping up as a two-party race between the incumbent All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The Left and the Congress have been pushed to the margins in the intense combat. The Bharatiya Gorkha Prajatantrik Morcha (BGPM) is contesting the three Darjeeling hill seats as an ally of the TMC. The TMC, which has been in power for three terms, has replaced 74 sitting Members of the Legislative Assembly to deflect anti-incumbency and bring in fresh faces to the field. In 2021, the TMC won 215 seats with a 48.02% vote share while the BJP secured 77 seats with 38%, a sharp rise from when it bagged just three seats and a 10.2% vote share in 2016. Chief Minister and TMC leader Mamata Banerjee is facing off against Leader of the Opposition Suvendu Adhikari, from the BJP, in Bhabanipur, where she is the sitting MLA. In 2021, she had lost to Mr. Adhikari in Nandigram by a margin of 1,956 votes, even while the TMC won yet another term. The run-up to the election in 2026 has been marred by controversies around the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of the voter list. West Bengal’s final electoral roll, which was published on February 28, saw the electorate shrink from 7.66 crore to 7.04 crore, with over 62 lakh names deleted. A further 60 lakh names remain under adjudication even as campaigning is underway, creating unprecedented uncertainty.
The standoff over SIR has overshadowed other debates. Having been in power for three terms, there is much that the TMC should be held accountable for, but SIR turned out to be a gift for Ms. Banerjee, which she has used to amplify her charges against the BJP that it is a party hostile to West Bengal and its voters. The BJP began 2026 with a reasonable case in its favour — the rape and murder of a trainee doctor in Kolkata, in 2024, had shaken public confidence in the Mamata government. But the party’s limitations — and even refusal — to negotiate the cultural and linguistic diversity of India are markedly visible in the State, and it is placing its hopes on the trimmed voter list and the manoeuvrability of the electoral process. Its State unit is a house divided, while the TMC appears to have consolidated itself further, with Ms. Banerjee and her nephew Abhishek firmly in command. The BJP’s upward trajectory may have hit the ceiling. The Congress is contesting without any alliances. The Left is not a power contender, but its vote share in select seats could influence margins in a tight race. In a long campaign period, there may be some surprises in store in West Bengal, as the BJP and the TMC both fight a battle for survival.
Published – March 24, 2026 12:20 am IST
