The AIADMK is on a weak footing

Last week, veteran leader K.A. Sengottaiyan, who was formerly with the All India Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), joined the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) led by actor Vijay in Tamil Nadu, which is set to go to the polls next year.

Mr. Sengottaiyan, who is a former Transport and School Education Minister, was expelled from the AIADMK about a month ago. He felt sidelined by party general secretary Edappadi K. Palaniswami and resigned from his post as MLA of Gobichettipalayam constituency in Erode district before joining the fledgling TVK.

The move did not surprise many people. Mr. Sengottaiyan had only two options: to either walk over to the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) or join the TVK. He would have probably found the first option unacceptable, having been trained in anti-DMK politics for years. When there was pandemonium in the Tamil Nadu Assembly on March 25, 1989, the then Chief Minister, M. Karunanidhi, alleged that Mr. Sengottaiyan had hit his face and broken his spectacles. On the same day, AIADMK supremo and the Leader of the Opposition, Jayalalithaa, too, was attacked. When she attempted to exit the Assembly during the melee, a DMK Minister held the end of her sari. Against such a backdrop, joining the TVK was Mr. Sengottaiyan’s best option as Mr. Vijay has, from the beginning of his political career, presented himself as a critic of the DMK.

Even though Mr. Sengottaiyan’s critics feel that the senior leader has lowered his stature by joining the TVK, a recent entrant into the political arena, the former Minister, who was elected to the Assembly nine times since 1977, will be an asset to the TVK. There is no leader in the TVK who can match Mr. Sengottaiyan’s experience in politics and election management. Mr. Sengottaiyan has been appointed the chief coordinator of TVK’s high-level administrative committee and organisation secretary for four western districts, traditionally known as AIADMK strongholds. By making him in charge of four districts, Mr. Vijay has signalled that he, like the DMK, is going to make things difficult for the principal Opposition party in the elections.

The woes of the AIADMK seem to continue: in recent months, it has lost some of its prominent second-rung leaders, including former MPs A. Anwhar Raajhaa and V. Maitreyan, to the DMK. Nearly eight months have gone since the AIADMK and the BJP announced the revival of their relationship, yet they have not been able to attract any party with a considerable following to their side. If this situation continues, it is going to be difficult for the combine to take on the DMK-led front, which has been able to keep its flock together.

When the two parties announced the renewal of their ties on April 10, their proponents predicted that they would secure a vote share of 41%. The believed that both parties would retain their allies from the 2024 Lok Sabha elections through 2026 as well. It is now clear that the AIADMK is not going to get the support of all the constituents of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance, which faced the electorate in April-May last year. One of the main reasons is that the Pattali Makkal Katchi, founded by S. Ramadoss in 1989, is heading towards a split. Mr. Ramadoss’s year-long political rift with his son and former Union Health Minister Anbumani Ramadoss has only widened. The Election Commission’s recent decision formally recognising Dr. Anbumani Ramadoss as the party president is likely to force the founder to chart his own course.

In the BJP, former State president K. Annamalai has often made remarks that have not been palatable either to the AIADMK or to Mr. Annamalai’s successor, Nainar Nagenthran, who is keen on preserving ties with the AIADMK at least until the elections are over.

The Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK), established by Vijayakant and now led by his wife Premalatha Vijayakant, seems to be keeping its options open, despite having exited the alliance with the AIADMK that was formed early last year. As other allies are on the fringes, their addition to the ranks of the Opposition will not make much of a difference to the outcome.

Unless the Naam Tamilar Katchi, which secured a vote share of about 8% in 2024, or the TVK joins the Opposition — either of which appears to be a remote possibility — the DMK-led coalition seems firmly in the driver’s seat.