What the Nuapada bypoll result signals

A bypoll defeat in a small border district such as Nuapada may not ordinarily shift the larger politics of Odisha or the country. However, the slide of the Biju Janata Dal (BJD), one of the country’s dominant regional forces over two and a half decades, to a distant third position delivers a momentous signal. Odisha’s political landscape is undergoing a decisive shift, and the era of Naveen Patnaik, a five-time Chief Minister known for his gracious and measured politics, may be approaching its end.

The BJD supremo was widely criticised for not campaigning enough during the 2024 Assembly and Lok Sabha elections — an omission many believe contributed to the party’s debacle. This time, determined to avoid attracting that criticism again, he hit the campaign trail in Nuapada, twice joining the canvassing for party candidate Snehangini Chhuria.

However, according to political observers, Mr. Patnaik’s rare outings may have harmed the party instead of helping it. The former Chief Minister, assisted by two long-time security personnel, appeared tired and frail as he walked to the dais and struggled to read out a few paragraphs at public meetings. For many in the BJD, the sight caused disillusionment — never had Mr. Patnaik’s aura as a mass leader taken such a visible hit as it did during campaigning for the Nuapada bypoll.

The party’s troubles run deep. Gone are the days when securing a BJD ticket meant the election was as good as won. This time, the BJD struggled to find a suitable candidate after Jay Dholakia — son of four-term BJD MLA Rajendra Dholakia, whose death necessitated the bypoll — defected to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Mr. Dholakia polled 1,23,869 votes; the Congress nominee, Ghasiram Majhi, secured 40,121; and Ms. Chhuria of the BJD received just 38,408. The crushing defeat stunned the BJD cadre, though seasoned political observers were less surprised.

Mr. Patnaik entered politics soon after the death of his father, the legendary Biju Patnaik, who many Odias believe never received the electoral success he deserved despite his pivotal role in placing the State on the national political map. Mr. Patnaik benefited from this residual sympathy but has never been a hands-on politician. He has rarely engaged directly with workers or party structures.

As one political observer put it, Mr. Patnaik has always been an exceptional manager of lieutenants who delivered on his behalf. Initially, he relied on his father’s trusted aide, the late Indian Administrative Service (IAS) officer Pyarimohan Mohapatra, to build the BJD. After Mohapatra’s ouster, he depended heavily on V.K. Pandian, the Tamil Nadu-born former bureaucrat, who came to exercise sweeping, extra-constitutional influence over both government and party affairs. During his long years in power, Mr. Patnaik benefited from the administrative machinery that executed his political and governance priorities with precision.

But now, stripped of power and expected to rally cadres and mount a spirited resistance to the BJP, Mr. Patnaik appears out of depth. Beyond beautifully crafted social media statements, he has seldom been seen interacting with workers or energising the rank and file. The Nuapada campaign is evidence of this.

Mohapatra wanted the BJD to grow as an ideological and cadre-based party. After his removal, the BJD gradually became leader-centric with no clear succession plan. The second-rung leadership was never empowered and remained subservient to either Mr. Patnaik or Mr. Pandian. Today, Mr. Pandian’s grip is loosening as senior leaders publicly question his role. A former BJD Rajya Sabha MP and two former BJD Rajya Sabha MPs are now BJP MPs in the Upper House after switching sides. More people are expected to quit the BJD.

Every political project has a dream run, but none can continue indefinitely. At a moment when his active involvement is crucial, age and expertise are no longer on Mr. Patnaik’s side. His charisma, aura, and reassuring political presence have waned to a point where it appears difficult for him to lift party morale or engineer a revival.

Mr. Patnaik’s accidental entry into politics and his long, uninterrupted rule were nothing short of a political miracle. Today, a BJD heavily dependent on his personal charisma seems to be waiting for yet another miracle — one that will produce a new leadership capable of keeping the party relevant in Odisha’s evolving political landscape.