Qualified success: On women’s turnout, Bihar Assembly election

Bihar has again demonstrated a singular electoral pattern in the Assembly elections which have ended. In preliminary voter turnout data from the Election Commission of India (ECI), women outnumbered men by at least 4.34 lakh votes, which is striking as they were registered approximately 42 lakh fewer than men on the electoral rolls following the Special Intensive Revision (SIR). This gender gap, where those with fewer registrations turned out in greater absolute numbers, underscores a complex interplay of welfare politics, demographic realities and lingering questions about electoral roll integrity. The paradox becomes pronounced when viewed against the backdrop of the SIR exercise that preceded the election. It resulted in net exclusions favouring men, with women disproportionately removed from the rolls. Following these deletions, the gender ratio of Bihar’s electorate plummeted to just 892 in the final SIR rolls, as against 907 recorded barely a year earlier. The Hindu’s statistical analysis of the draft SIR and exclusion data — released after a Supreme Court of India directive — revealed that women (18-29 years) were most severely affected, particularly under the “permanently shifted” category of exclusions. This suggests that women who moved after marriage bore the brunt of deletions, with no transparency on whether they were added to rolls in their new locations.

Despite these anomalies, the higher turnout of women is likely to work to the advantage of the Nitish Kumar-led government, if past electoral trends hold true. His nearly two-decade tenure has consistently emphasised women’s empowerment through targeted welfare measures. This election cycle saw the launch of the Mukhyamantri Mahila Rojgar Yojana in September, and the transfer of ₹10,000 to women across Bihar. Disbursements continued after the Model Code of Conduct, with the ECI accepting the questionable rationale that it was an “ongoing scheme”. Higher participation by women in electoral processes is worth celebrating. Such patterns have been largely confined to States with either intense political-ideological contestation — West Bengal and Kerala — or those with high development indices. Bihar, however, presents a different picture. Its high male out-migration rates, for work, partly explain why women’s absolute turnout exceeded men’s despite their smaller registered base. The last-minute cash transfers and these structural demographic factors appear to be more responsible for the turnout pattern than any deep political or ideological mobilisation. This brings into focus the ECI’s silence on a fundamental question: how did Bihar’s electoral rolls end up with a gender ratio significantly lower than what surveys indicate for the State’s population? Until the ECI provides transparent answers about the SIR process, the celebration of the higher women’s turnout must remain qualified. Electoral participation gains meaning only when preceded by fair and accurate voter registration.