What comes next as Trump responds to Russia’s drone incursion

Russia’s drone incursion into Poland now poses an acid test for NATO and the European Union.

In a first such instance since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Warsaw said it scrambled its own and NATO aircraft to take down some of the 19 Russian drones that entered its airspace in the early hours of Wednesday morning.

Russia’s Defense Ministry on Wednesday said it did not plan to attack any targets in Poland, while Warsaw’s Western allies swiftly condemned what they described as a deliberate and unprecedented provocation.

Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said new economic measures against Moscow may be required to try to force Russian President Vladimir Putin to negotiate an end to the conflict, according to Reuters.

His comments come as European Union officials are understood to be ironing out a 19th package of sanctions against Russia.

In her annual State of the Union address on Wednesday, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the bloc intends to accelerate efforts to phase out all purchases of Russian fossil fuels and to crack down on Moscow’s shadow oil shipping fleet.

U.S. President Donald Trump, meanwhile, offered an ambiguous response to the suspected drone attack.

“What’s with Russia violating Poland’s airspace with drones? Here we go!” Trump said in a social media post on Wednesday evening, without elaborating any further.

Trump has previously asked the EU to hit China and India with tariffs of up to 100% over the countries’ Russian oil purchases, seeking to cut off a major source of revenues funding Putin’s war machine.

Guntram Wolff, senior fellow at Brussels-based think tank Bruegel, said Russia’s drone incursion into Poland reaffirms the need for European leaders to fund a so-called “drone wall.” This refers to calls to create a layered air defense shield using uncrewed vehicles to protect the bloc’s airspace from Russia.

Lithuania’s Andrius Kubilius, Europe’s defense commissioner, said on Wednesday that the bloc must “urgently develop” a drone wall along the EU’s entire eastern flank, calling it “the most important common flagship project” right now.

Investing in air defense is all the more important, Wolff said, as the U.S. reportedly cuts some security funds for European armies along Russia’s border.

“Russia is deliberately testing the European capabilities in fending off Russian drones. It sent 19 drones, and it has learned a lot. And one of the big things Russia has learned is Europe is not ready,” Wolff told CNBC’s “Europe Early Edition” on Thursday.

“They were shot down by really high value equipment, so it was necessary to scramble an F-35 fighter jet, that is worth hundreds of millions of U.S. dollars, to shoot down a drone that is perhaps [worth] $100,000,” Wolff said.

“So, this is a clear mismatch and an inability of European countries to respond with equipment that is cheap enough to be sustained in case of a real, long-term, massive intrusion,” he added.

Poland, for its part, was recently estimated to be NATO’s top military spender when measured as a share of its economy. The country, which shares a border with Ukraine, was forecast to spend 4.1% of gross domestic product on defense in 2024, followed by Estonia (3.4%) and the U.S. (3.4%), respectively.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on Wednesday said a full assessment of Russia’s drone incursion into Poland is ongoing, before adding that he was “really impressed” with how allies responded to Wednesday’s potential attack.

“We always have to make sure that we are one step ahead. But I think last night showed that we are able to defend every inch of NATO territory including, of course, its airspace,” Rutte said.

On the prospect of tougher economic measures against Russia, Bruegel’s Wolff said it doesn’t make sense for the EU to heed Trump’s call to impose 100% tariffs on China and India.

“I am not convinced that it is a good idea to have 100% tariffs on India as well as China because India, of course, is an ally against China and against the axis of autocracy. It is a big democracy in Asia, so I think we need to work with India,” Wolff said.

Speaking to lawmakers on Wednesday, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said the country was at its closest to open conflict than at any point since World War II.

“The fact that these drones, which directly threatened our security, were downed is of course a success for ours and NATO’s military. But it also changes the situation, the political situation,” Tusk said, according to a CNBC translation.

“This is a confrontation that Russia has declared on the entire free world. And this must finally be understood by everyone, without exception,” he added.

Warsaw, which has long been a strong supporter of Ukraine, has since said the United Nations Security Council will hold an emergency meeting on Thursday to discuss the violation of its airspace.

Ian Brzezinski, former U.S. deputy secretary of defense for Europe and NATO policy, said Russia’s drone incursion into Poland was an “intentional barrage intended to provoke Poland and test the solidarity of the NATO alliance.”

If the West doesn’t respond forcefully to the attack, Brzezinski said Putin will have achieved a double strategic hit.

“It is critical for the Alliance to decisively respond to deny such a success through its own double hit—one that reinforces its own deterrent posture and the defense of Ukraine. NATO allies and its partners should impose a harsh set of sanctions designed to body slam the Russian economy,” Brzezinski said.

NATO, a defensive alliance, has long resisted a direct conflict with Russia since Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.