After three months of the southwest monsoon season, Keralam is now staring at a deficient season, with rainfall already 22% below normal as the four-month rainy season enters its final lap. The India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) monthly outlook has forecast below-normal rainfall for September, raising the prospect of the monsoon ending the season with a significant shortfall and paving the way for early summer-like conditions in the State.
Private weather forecasting agency Skymet had earlier downgraded its monsoon forecast for the country to drought, projecting seasonal rainfall at 85% of the Long Period Average (LPA) and putting the probability of a drought at 70%.
Speaking to The Hindu, Neetha K. Gopal, Director, IMD, Thiruvananthapuram, said Kerala had recorded a 22% rainfall deficit during the first three-fourths of the monsoon season, from June 1 to August 31. Given the prevailing atmospheric conditions, there is little scope for a significant revival of rainfall activity across the State in September, barring isolated light showers in some pockets. The deficit is therefore likely to widen by the end of the month, she said.
The strengthening El Niño and weak India Ocean Dipole (IOD), both of which tend to suppress monsoon activity, could also adversely affect the forthcoming northeast monsoon, though it is too early to make a definitive assessment, Ms. Gopal said.
Meanwhile, conditions are becoming favourable for the withdrawal of the southwest monsoon from Rajasthan and adjoining areas. The cessation of rainfall over western parts of northwest India for five consecutive days, accompanied by a reduction in moisture and the development of anticyclonic circulation, will set the stage for the withdrawal. Southern Keralam, however, could receive isolated heavy showers during the retreating phase if weather systems develop over the Bay of Bengal.
Rainfall is deficient in eight of Keralam’s 14 districts as of September 1. The State received 1,368 mm of rainfall from June 1 to September 1, against the normal 1,759 mm, a deficit of around 22%. The situation is particularly alarming in Wayanad and Idukki, where rainfall deficits stand at 51% and 44%, respectively. The two districts account for a major share of Kerala’s power-generating reservoirs, making the prolonged rainfall deficiency a potential concern for water and power availability.
Keralam normally receives a substantial monsoon boost when the westerly winds along the coast are reinforced by weather systems over the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. An active offshore trough along the West Coast can trigger heavy rainfall, particularly over the Western Ghats, while strong westerlies from the Arabian Sea hitting the Ghats head-on intensify the monsoon surge. However, none of these key rain-enhancing factors is currently in place, leaving Keralam with little prospect of a significant revival in monsoon activity during the remaining weeks of the season.
Published – September 01, 2026 08:06 pm IST
