A jobseeker speaks with a recruiter in front of signage during the Catalyst Career Group Dallas Job Fair in Dallas, Texas, US, on Wednesday, July 29, 2026.
Dylan Hollingsworth | Bloomberg | Getty Images
The U.S. economy saw an unexpected declined in jobs during July while the unemployment rate edged lower, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday in a snapshot that showed a slowing employment picture.
Nonfarm payrolls fell by a seasonally adjusted 23,000 for the month, compared to a downwardly revised 20,000 for June. The Dow Jones consensus forecast had been looking for a gain of 83,000.
At the same time, the unemployment slipped to 4.1% as the labor force participation rate fell further to 61.4%, its lowest in more than five years.
In addition to the weak numbers for June and July, the final count for May was revised down to 63,000, or 66,000 lower than the prior estimate. The revised numbers brought the 12-month average down to just 34,000.
The drop was led by a 50,000 decline in local government education and a loss of 19,000 retail jobs. Financial activities also posted a 14,000 decline.
Healthcare, which has been the leading sector for job creation, rose by 22,000, which was below its 12-month average of 36,000.
While jobs held flat, worker pay also saw virtually no gain during the month. Average hourly earnings increased by just 2 cents, bringing the 12-month average down to 3.2%, below the forecast increase of 3.5%.
The report comes with Federal Reserve policymakers split on where interest rates should head in an economy where the labor market had been improving from a moribund year in 2025 while inflation has remained well above the central bank’s 2% target.
In recent days, several Fed officials have spoken in favor of raising rates as soon as September if the pace of price increases doesn’t ease. The Federal Open Market Committee last week voted 9-3 to hold its benchmark rate in place.
Following the jobs report, traders shifted their bets on when the Fed might hike. Odds for a move in September fell to 44% and to 58.3% for October, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch gauge of futures prices.
Stock market futures, meanwhile, posted solid gains amid the expectations for a more dovish Fed. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were up close to 200 points and Treasury yields plummeted after being around the flatline earlier in the session.
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