Stage set for Council polls in Karnataka that could give Congress majority in Upper House

On the eve of the anticipated Legislative Council polls to seven seats that is expected to give the Congress a majority in the Upper House over three years after it came to power, number churning became the focus of parties that huddled their legislators on Wednesday.

Mock voting

While the Congress trained its legislators through mock voting in a resort near Bidadi, the Janata Dal (Secular) brought theirs to a resort near Nandi Hills, and the BJP legislators were trained in a hotel in the city.

Of the seven seats, the Congress and the BJP are expected to comfortably win four and two, respectively, and the former is tied in a battle with the JD(S) for the seventh seat in which Vinay Karthik is pitted against Govindaraju.

Apportioning votes

With a minimum of 28 votes expected for a win, parties strategised to apportion the votes among their candidates. There are also precedents of parties allotting one extra vote to the candidate for “safety” in case of any vote becoming invalid or legislators refraining or absenting from voting.

The voting is through secret ballot, which also gives anxious moments to parties. The second preferential votes play a crucial role, turning this into a number-churning exercise, especially when the contest for one seat is tight and fears of cross-voting have been expressed.

The Congress, which has a tally of 37 in the 75-member Upper House, will get a majority with wins assured in four seats. If it manages to win all five seats, its tally will go to 39.

In the 224-member Lower House, the current strength is 222 after the disqualification of Vinay Kulkarni and the demise of former Minister D. Sudhakar. The Congress has 135 members and has the support of two Independents, one Sarvodaya Karnataka Paksha member, and two members expelled from the BJP — S.T. Somashekar and Shivaram Hebbar. The BJP has 63 members, including G. Janardhan Reddy, while the JD(S) has 18 members and is expecting support of BJP expelled member Basanagouda R. Patil Yatnal.

Congress sources said the party conducted three rounds of mock voting, in which Chief Minister D.K. Shivakumar also took part. The Congress has over 30 first-time legislators. Multiple mock polls are being done to prevent any votes from becoming invalid.

HDK’s strategy meeting

The JD(S) legislators were also in a strategy meeting with Union Minister H.D. Kumaraswamy and were trained by senior and former members experienced in preferential voting system.

Meanwhile, it is learnt that though the JD(S) is seeking six votes from the BJP to be transferred to its candidate Govindraju, the BJP is yet to make up its mind. “The decision on whether to keep 28 or 29 votes each for our candidate will be taken later,” BJP sources said.

How the humbers stack up

Going by the book, each candidate has to secure 28 votes to win though political calculations are often different.

Assuming the Congress allots 28 votes for each candidate, all the five candidates will sail through. However, with parties being vary of invalid votes and cross voting, at least one additional vote is given to each candidate.

Assuming the Congress allots 29 votes to the first four candidates, the party’s fifth candidate will fall short of four votes and will end with 24.

The JD(S) — assuming the BJP transfers six votes — along with votes expected from G. Janardhan Reddy and BJP’s expelled member Basanagouda R. Patil Yatnal will have 26, including 18 of its own.

Assuming the BJP allots 29 votes to each of its two candidates, it will be able to transfer only four votes to the JD(S) candidate dwindling his number to 24. For both, second preferential votes remain important unless cross voting gives them the number.

“In such a scenario, the second preferences provided in the surplus votes to the winning candidates will be considered for counting and value derived from it is added to the candidates tally. Many times, value of surplus votes will enable the candidate to win. Even after counting this, if the value does not cross 28, then the elimination rule will be applied to eliminate the candidate with least votes. These calculations can also change if there are invalid votes that brings the calculable values. The calculations are dynamic and it will be known only during counting,” a government source explained.