Though the date of arrival does not correlate with the quantum of rainfall, the latter is a cause of concern this year. File
| Photo Credit: Nirmal Harindran
The southwest monsoon is now expected to advance into Kerala on June 4, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Tuesday (June 2, 2026).
This update comes after the IMD, in a statement on May 29, acknowledged that the rain was unlikely to reach Kerala within the four-day window of its forecasted date of May 26. The ‘normal’ date for the monsoon’s advent over the State was initially set for June 1.
Last year, the monsoon set in over Kerala on May 24 — its earliest arrival since 2009. Though the date of arrival does not correlate with the quantum of rainfall, the latter is a cause of concern this year with the IMD and other weather agencies having warned of ‘below normal’ rainfall.
“Conditions are favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon into some more parts of southwest & southeast Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep Islands, some parts of Kerala & Tamil Nadu, some more parts of southwest, westcentral, eastcentral & northeast Bay of Bengal, and remaining parts of southeast Bay of Bengal during next 2-3 days,” the agency said in its daily bulletin on Monday (June 1, 2026).
IMD’s operational forecasts of the date of monsoon onset over Kerala during the past 21 years (2005-2025) were proved to be correct except in 2015, the agency had said in a fact sheet. ‘Correct’ here means the monsoon arriving in a window of four days of the forecast date.
This year, the agency has also lowered its forecast for the southwest monsoon to 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA), down from the 92% it had projected in April.
If a monsoon season sees less than 90% of the LPA rainfall, the IMD classifies it as “deficient”.
One reason behind the below-normal rainfall this year could be the emergence of El Nino conditions, which lead to less rain during monsoon in India, the IMD said.
Currently, neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions are transitioning towards El Nino conditions over the equatorial Pacific region, it said. El Nino conditions are likely to be weak in June, and moderate to strong in September, it added.
With PTI inputs
Published – June 02, 2026 12:39 pm IST
