The Iran war is upending the global LNG outlook as soaring prices, damage to major supplier Qatar’s export infrastructure and potential delays to new supply raise doubts about previously expected demand from price-sensitive Asian buyers.
Before the war, analysts expected global liquefied natural gas supply to rise as much as 10% this year to between 460 million and 484 million metric tons as new capacity, mainly in the U.S. and Qatar, came online, with demand forecast to grow in tandem.
Now, Iran’s blocking of the Strait of Hormuz, which handles 20% of global LNG flows, and damage to Qatar’s liquefaction trains – sidelining 12.8 million tons per year of LNG for three to five years – have prompted consultancies S&P Global Energy, ICIS, Kpler and Rystad Energy to cut global supply outlooks by as much as 35 million tons.
-Reuters
