Diabetes Atlas projections indicate 900 million people will have diabetes in 2050

In its projections for 2050, the 11th edition of the International Diabetes Federation Diabetes Atlas has calculated that from around 500 million people living with diabetes in 2024, the number will grow to nearly 900 million people, between the ages of 20-79 years.

Publishing the key results as an article in the peer reviewed journal Lancet Diabetes Endocrinal 2025, the authors, who are scientists collaborating accross the world, pointed out that in 2024, that figure was 11.11 % of the population and just over 580 million adults. As per their projections, diabetes will affect 12.96 % of the population, over 850 million people, in 2050. In the paper, Irini Genitsaridi et al, stress: As the diabetes epidemic has continued unchecked since the turn of the millenium, stronger efforts are needed to slow down progression, with strategies tailored appropriately across countries and population groups.

A total of 210 countries and five territories were included in the 11th edition of the IDF Diabetes Atlas.

Urban-rural estimates play a very important division in the epidemiological study of non communicable diseases, as they also have a strong correlation with risk-inducing behaviours in different settings. In 2024, more people with diabetes were living in urban areas (400 million) than in rural areas (189 million). The authors state that this trend would continue with the projection for 2050, for urban centres (655 million) but in rural areas, it is likely to remain almost the same (198 million) in 2050.

Further disaggregating data on the basis of income levels, in 2024, middle income countries had the highest age-standardised prevalence of diabetes, followed by high income countries. The lowest prevalence was in low income countries. However, it is estimated that over 95 % of the increase in number of people with diabetes will occur in low and middle income countries in 2050. The explosion of population growth in the low and middle income countries, population aging and urbanisation are factors that explain the sheer rise in numbers.

A.Ramachandran, one of the authors of the paper, from the India Diabetes Research Foundation, says “one of the unique features of this year’s Atlas, is the table listing the top 10 countries of the world with diabetes load. China is right at the top of the table with about 148 million people with diabetes, and India comes up second on the table, with nearly 90 million. The United States comes third, and Pakistan, fourth. In 2050, while China and India will maintain their top positions on the table, it is projected that Pakistan will climb to the third slot.