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Home » Will your waiting train ticket get confirmed? Here’s the formula to hack the puzzle

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Will your waiting train ticket get confirmed? Here’s the formula to hack the puzzle

Times Desk
Last updated: December 5, 2025 11:26 am
Times Desk
Published: December 5, 2025
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The clarification from the Railways is essential, as many apps show confirmation chances; however, they aren’t accurate several times.

New Delhi:

One major issue that every train passenger faces is the waiting list. Most of the passengers witness the issue that when the train ticket is booked, it shows a waiting list. It leaves passengers wondering whether their tickets will be confirmed. To address this problem, the Railways recently released statistics and rules on waiting tickets, making it easier to estimate whether a ticket will be confirmed.

The Railways has made it clear that waiting tickets will not exceed 25 per cent of the total seats in any class. It implies that if a coach consists of 100 seats, the waiting list will only be limited to 25 seats. The rule is aimed at providing relief to women and disabled passengers. While it is doubtful whether this system will reduce congestion or not, it certainly looks to make ticket booking more transparent.

The clarification from the Railways is essential, as many apps show confirmation chances; however, they aren’t accurate several times. Indian Railways has shared some average figures, on the basis of which a fairly accurate estimate can be made.

Here’s what the Railways’ confirmation formula says: 

  • On average, almost 21 per cent of passengers book tickets and then opt for cancellation 
  • Almost 4–5 per cent of people don’t board the train despite booking tickets.
  • There’s the Railways’ emergency quota, which in most cases does not get fully utilised. This also gets converted to waiting lists.
  • Additionally, 25 per cent of the total seats are likely to become vacant and reach the quota of waiting lists

How many waiting lists can be confirmed in a coach?

To take an example, a sleeper coach has a total of 72 seats. As per the formula given by the Railways, approximately 25 per cent of the seats can become vacant due to cancellations and emergency quotas, i.e., approximately 18 seats. This means that there is a high probability of almost 18 waiting lists getting confirmed in a sleeper coach.

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