The decline followed a rapid escalation in US duties that began at 10 per cent on April 2, rose to 25 per cent on August 7, and reached 50 per cent by late August, making Indian goods among the most heavily taxed of any US trading partner.
India’s exports to the United States — its largest overseas market — have seen a sharp downturn due to steep tariff hikes imposed by Washington, according to a report released on Saturday by the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI). Between May and October 2025, India’s shipments to the US fell 28.5 per cent, dropping from USD 8.83 billion to USD 6.31 billion.
The slide coincided with a rapid escalation in US import duties on Indian goods, which rose from 10 per cent on April 2 to 25 per cent on August 7, and further to 50% by late August, making Indian products among the most heavily taxed of all US trading partners. In comparison, China faced tariffs of around 30%, while Japan encountered duties of just 15 per cent.
Export of Tariff-exempt items
Tariff-exempt items such as smartphones, pharmaceuticals and petroleum products accounted for 40.3 per cent of October exports but still fell 25.8 per cent, from USD 3.42 billion in May to USD 2.54 billion in October — a contraction of USD 881 million, the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said.
It added that products facing uniform global tariffs — mainly iron, steel, aluminum, copper and auto parts — formed just 7.6 per cent of shipments in October.
Exports in this category fell 23.8 per cent between May and October, sliding from USD 629 million in May to USD 480 million in October, or about USD 149 million, it said.
The sharpest impact was seen in labour-intensive sectors where India alone faced 50 per cent duties. These goods, which constituted 52.1 per cent of October exports, plunged 31.2 per cent, from USD 4.78 billion in May to USD 3.29 billion in October — wiping out nearly USD 1.5 billion in five months.
“Smartphones, India’s single biggest product line to the US, suffered a 36 per cent decline, sliding from USD 2.29 billion in May to USD 1.50 billion in October — a loss of almost USD 790 million,” GTRI Founder Ajay Srivastava said.
He said that monthly exports slid steadily from USD 2 billion in June to USD 1.52 billion in July, plunged to USD 964.8 million in August, dipped further to USD 884.6 million in September, before recovering to USD 1.5 billion in October.
Pharmaceutical exports saw a marginal decline
Pharmaceutical exports saw a marginal decline of 1.6 per cent (USD 745.6 million to USD 733.6 million), while petroleum product shipments fell 15.5 per cent (from USD 291 million to USD 246 million).
Further, the report said that labour-intensive sectors such as gems and jewellery, textiles, garments, chemicals, and seafood recorded a dip in the outbound shipments.
Chemical exports tumbled 38 per cent, declining from USD 537 million to USD 333 million.
(With PTI inputs)
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