INCOIS targets faster tsunami alerts using GNSS sensors, AI models

Scientists at the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) are working to enhance early warning systems for tsunamis originating from the Sumatra-Andaman subduction zone, aiming to reduce the warning time for the Indian east coast to less than five minutes, down from the current 10 minutes or less.

This improvement could be achieved by integrating about 32 Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) sensors on the Andaman and Nicobar Islands to monitor ocean-floor quakes, using the data for rapid source characterization, and deploying machine learning-based inundation models and impact forecasting.

At the first Ocean Decade Tsunami Programme (ODTP) conference, held over two days at INCOIS headquarters in Pragatinagar, scientists from India and abroad discussed implementing the project, particularly developing the capability to issue actionable and timely tsunami warnings for all identified sources to 100% of coasts at risk.

Another key objective is to prepare a timeline to make all coastal communities at risk tsunami-resilient by 2030, through initiatives like the IOC-UNESCO Tsunami Ready Recognition Programme. Researchers are also examining the condition of crustal faults after the 2004 tsunami, improving characterisation of landslide sources and steep coastal margins, as “early warnings can save lives”.

Earlier, Ministry of Earth Sciences Secretary M. Ravichandran said steps are under way to introduce multi-dimensional early warning systems, strengthen observation networks from seabed sensors to mobile alerts, expand GNSS stations, increase tide gauges and buoys, install sirens, modernise hazard maps for all oceanographic threats and build nature-based solutions like mangroves and coral reefs. “We should be able to detect well and decide quickly,” he said.

Emeritus scientist Harsh K. Gupta of the National Geophysical Research Institute emphasised that ocean-bottom recorders can detect signals from quakes at the seabed, unlike surface waves that dissipate after travelling about a kilometer. He urged countries to invest in shallow bathymetry and topography for better warning systems.

INCOIS director T. M. Balakrishnan Nair called for multinational collaborations to extend research to the Makran coast (Arabian Sea) and highlighted efforts to double ocean observation systems, build capacity, provide training and strengthen tsunami preparedness among coastal communities.